That's plausible. A short sharp invasion abetted by key KMT re-unificationists in the Taiwanese military.

Possession is 10/10ths of the law in a war. Very hard/impossible to dislodge CCP if they get entrenched in Taiwan.

There'll then be some tepid statement condemning the invasion & expressing the wish that both sides can settle their differences peacefully.

Then it's done. For all time. Just like HK. Only thing left to do is round-up/persecute those who opposed totalitarianism, & change the school curriculum.

I think you're onto something with the off-screen big-thing (e.g. cbdc). There has gotta be some huge payoff in this somewhere for Trump/his handlers.

Or maybe the Russians do have something on him. There'll definitely be a reason.

To be fair, it's only speculation at this point, though the signs that Taiwan is being sold off are not good.

As you pointed out, it's hard to know where the military is at exactly - well known KMT stronghold, but with a decade of whittling that down by DPP. You'd think the soldiers would be fine, it's all about the generals.