There are some wild cards at play here, and probably some unknowns, such as the possibility that there may be somehing much larger at play here.

One wild card I've considered is to what extent is the Taiwan military really committed to defending Taiwan. Historically, the Taiwan military has been anti-independence, and no doubt some, maybe a significant number, of high level military officials in Taiwan are still vehemently anti-independence and maybe even increasingly pro-China. (Well, they've always been pro-China, and we're talking here about the legacy of the KMT, just not pro CCP. As the KMT loses influence in Taiwan, this segment of the military, and wider populace, may be softening on the CCP.)

The wild card here is how this element of the Taiwan military will act, or are acting, with regards to defending Taiwan, because if a shooting war breaks out, then it would be the end of the status quo. It would be the beginning of an independent Taiwan. Do the pro-China military members, most of whom are in the higher ranks, want that? Would they do something to thwart it?

And this begs the question of, are such efforts current in segments of the Taiwan military? Could there be a coup? There are many ways that could happen, possibly even keeping the Taiwan players hidden. Or it could be explicit. Regardless, that could be in the works. That's the wild card.

And if such an event came to pass, it would result in massive internal civil conflict, a civil war.

There are 1001 scenarios that could lead up to this. Whatever is is, it would likely be a false flag op of some sort.

But there is a logic to why it might happen. China and the US avoid confrontation. The KMT gets power back, albeit maybe under another name. Trump and Musk get whatever they're negotiating for. And, if there's indeed something bigger in the works, this gets the Taiwan 'problem' out of the way in a reasonably agreeable manner for everyone except the Taiwanese.