Snap Blockade (General)

by dan, Tuesday, October 15, 2024, 14:47 (3 days ago) @ dan

Here's something of a twist. It appears that these games were essentially unannounced. It's kind of hard to tell how much of a warning was given if any.

From Reuters:

"Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region," he told reporters in Taipei.

"China's drills not only affect Taiwan's neighbourhood, but also seriously affect the entire international navigational rights and air and sea space, so attracted the attention of other countries."

From Taiwan News On October 14, the day of the games:

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced the “Joint Sword-2024B” military exercises around Taiwan on Monday (Oct. 14).

The PLA's Eastern Theater Command said the drills involve land, sea, air, and rocket forces in the Taiwan Strait and areas north, south, and east of Taiwan. The PLA did not say when the drills would end.

The use of the present tense suggests that the announcement came as or just before the games commenced.

So, basically, they said we're getting into attack position, but we're telling you it's just practice, so don't do anything.

My impression is that most large scale military games are announced well in advance so as to avoid miscalculations and mistakes, i.e., confrontation. This approach almost begs confrontation, like if Taiwan had taken defensive action, it would have given China the green light to attack. At the very least, it establishes a precedent of Chinese forces coming within attack position of Taiwan with little or no warning for the purposes of games. Imagine if China did that to Okinawa? Or Guam? The reaction would be very different.


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