China’s military has started a new round of war games with ships and aircraft near Taiwan, just days after the self-ruled democratic island marked its National Day.

Captain Li Xi, the spokesman for the Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command, said the drills were focussed on “sea-air combat-readiness patrol, blockade on key ports and areas” and would also involve an “assault on maritime and ground targets”.

Somewhere along the war-game continuum of normalization, you'd think there will be drill that turns out to not be a drill. This is probably not it, but it might well be how it happens - CCP gets its pieces into place in the guise of an exercise, then ... leaves them there.

CCP is known for its long-game, but they wouldn't be oblivious to a window of opportunity all the same. It would appear that that window currently exists - Ukraine war, expanding war in the middle-east, Chinese control of manufacturing & crucial supply chains - the last being a window that the US is desperately trying to close, but it is still currently wide open, which makes all the more reason to act now.

Not sure how the US election fits into the timing, or what influence a dramatic escalation could have on the result. Normally it would favour the incumbent, but there isn't a real incumbent - & neither candidate has made statements that would fill Taiwanese with confidence. At least Biden said plainly that he would defend Taiwan, even if efforts were made to try to walk it back as the musings of a 'well-meaning elderly gentleman'.