Big surge in Chinese military activity yesterday involving 71 planes in 'strike drills'. PRC released aerial photos which are supposedly of Taiwan's central range - guess that's meant to send a message.

Well, they have a window for action for the next couple of years.Taiwan is set to launch it's first homemade sub, which won't play well locally in China once it happens. The US seems to be opening floodgates of weapons to Taiwan albeit for a price unlike Ukraine. There's a US election coming up in 2024 that will see either DeSantis or Biden win, and I think DeSantis stands a very good chance of beating Biden. Either one of them will not favor China. China was probably hoping that Trump might stand a chance, but that fool is out. The point is that China sees nothing good on the horizon in the US leadership, and things at home for China aren't going so well. In fact, they're sorta fucked economically, like the rest of the world. They dropped the zero covid policy to avoid social unrest, but that unrest could continue. If it does, pressure to move on Taiwan will increase.

Anecdotally, a friend in Taiwan tells me that her friends living/working long-term in China are returning to Taiwan.

Interesting. I've heard that rich Chinese are leaving in large numbers, and I know a bunch of foreigners got out once they could. Things just seem very unstable in China, and that doesn't bode well for Taiwan.