Again, this was our take from months ago. China is clearly prepping.

Agreed, and they're playing the long game as they always do, a game the US has not only never been good at, they haven't even existed long enough to play. China holds the cards here. The only thing the US has is military might and a strong currency. That's a lot, but China, again, is playing the long game, prepping for all contingencies. The US preps for very short term scenarios.

I can see a strategy of China and Russia. One of protracting the Ukraine war, thereby using Western military resources while at the same time depleting public enthusiasm for war. Eventually, assuming there's a chicken in every pot, Americans will cease to care about Ukraine. It will no longer be headline news. Or maybe it will, in which case it will become even more tiring, because, at the end of the day, people don't give a shit about anything that doesn't negatively impact their lives.

So maybe the US will somehow play the Ukraine war in this way or that, but they will keep pumping money into it, and weapons. It's good for business.

So what happens in 16 months when the war is still going on, people are sick of hearing about it, don't care, brutality everywhere, and something happens in Taiwan? To what extent at that point will the US and its allies be able to defend Taiwan?

I don't know. Perhaps it will be more, perhaps less, but it will certainly be a more complicated situation, and I think China is playing that long game, waiting for those complications and stressors on the ability of other countries to come to Taiwan's defense to build. Smart.

A coordinated strategy between Russia and China for a move on Taiwan would be particularly effective if taken in 8-16 months when the US is in a recession and severely weakened. Supply lines would dry up dealing a death blow to the US economy. This would be a 1-2 punch that might be in the works right now between Russia and China that the US is too arrogant to consider and discuss in a public forum.