They have to do something substantial just to save face and maintain status at home. I'm thinking these war games may go on and the positions held. That could put pressure on Taiwan to respond militarily, and if Taiwan takes that bait, well, let the games begin on the next level.

A blockade would be a big move. Better buy that back-up computer soon as Taiwan supplies, astonishingly, more than half the world's computer chips. I assume that even a disruption in shipping would make computers/phones very hard to get.

Interestingly, Taiwan-China trade increased by 26% in the last year! In the same time-frame, China banned every Aus product except iron-ore. That's the advantage of having a manufacturing sector that produces essential goods - as opposed to wine and tourism.

The next few days might tell the story as to where this is heading.

A friend from Taiwan sent me the below image. Shows that it's not only China with a strong military presence around Taiwan with three US warships placed strategically nearby - so enacting a shipping-blockade is not as simple as it may sound. Apart from the aircraft carriers depicted on the map, he says there are 32 US warships in the vicinity. So it's getting pretty congested!