De-facto Blockade (General)
So cut your losses then consolidate the rest? Yeah, i hope it's not that, but it's a plausible scenario. That's why i never trusted Trump's rhetoric on China - you always felt like he saw Taiwan as a bargaining chip.
Something like that. Trump is full of shit. The only thing he cares about is himself. He'd turn on his own family. I truly believe that. And the US just doesn't have the will to fight a bloody, full on war against a military equal, which China is now. Sure, we'll bomb Iraq to shit and make it look great on TV. But going up against China over Taiwan goes so far in China's favor that the US govt. won't consider it. For China, it's a national mission of spiritual proportions. Most Americans don't know where the fuck Taiwan is, and once they see ships getting sunk and hundreds, maybe thousands of soldiers dying every day, well... no US politician is going to go there.
Now, the one thing that would change that is if China were to attack US bases in Japan or Guam, or if they were to fire the first shot and sink a ship. Then the whole cowboy American pride quality would come into play, similar to what led the US into WWII. But ultimately it's all politics, power, and money. Democratic virtue doesn't mean shit to US politicians. They thwart democracy whenever democracy doesn't serve them, and praise its virtues when it does. Just look at how the Democratic Party is trying to block the Green Party in the US
There were two moments in history that stick out.
1. Switching recognition from Taiwan to China.
2. Post Tienanmen Square.
Agreed, and I would add a more recent example, and that is Obama's failure to block or at least slow down China's expansion into the South China Sea by building then militarizing islands. It mostly happened under his watch. Sure he paid lip service, but he didn't do shit about it. In fact, aside from legalizing same sex marriage, Obama didn't actually do anything at all during his whole 8-year presidency, even though he had the congress. Obamacare is a fucking nightmare and a cash cow for the insurance industry. I really had high hopes for him, but he ended up being just like all the other presidents, nothing. A corporate lap dog.
Things can still be done - but it takes political will. First job is sort out manufacturing. It's beyond absurd that we are reliant on a totalitarian regime for half the goods in our house. Same way i eventually managed to get the tree down and cut-up. It's a difficult job, pity i didn't do it sooner, but it was still doable.
Agreed 100%. I think any leverage the west has here is economic. Yes, we depend on China, but they depend on us. Western countries should become more self reliant, but there's one more thing we can do, and that is to practice the simple approach or reciprocity. We can't buy property in your country? Fine, you can't do it in ours. You want concessions to build factories? Fine, we want the same. You want your citizens to enjoy the freedoms of our country? Fine, we want our citizens to enjoy those same freedoms in your country. Oh, you would rather not? OK, then we'll treat your citizens in our country like you treat them in your country. How's that? We can track them, search their homes for no reason, imprison them for no reason...
Reciprocity. Why the hell countries don't do this is beyond me.