Strategists must have entertained the cynical view that in the event of China taking Taiwan, US bases might get a boost of support. Plus, Marcos Jr. just won the presidency in the Philippines, and I can see the US using the fall of Taiwan as a selling point to get more of a presence in the Philippines and possibly other places like Palau.

So cut your losses then consolidate the rest? Yeah, i hope it's not that, but it's a plausible scenario. That's why i never trusted Trump's rhetoric on China - you always felt like he saw Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

Like a lot of things, the mistakes were made many years ago. Yesterday i cut down a tree that was too close to the house. Apart from filling the gutters with leaves, clogging the down-pipes, there's the fire hazard it posed if a bushfire comes this way. It was a big job - dangerous - to me - and also the risk that it might fall on the house. If i'd done it when i first got here it would have been a lot easier. If the people who lived here before me had had the foresight, they could have bent down and plucked it straight out of the ground as a seedling.

Similarly, the west allowed the situation with Taiwan/China to get out of hand to the point where a simple visit from a senior politician becomes a potential trigger for war.

There were two moments in history that stick out.

1. Switching recognition from Taiwan to China. You could argue this was partly/mainly the fault of the KMT who were still insisting on their status as rightful rulers of all China, but Kissinger is also to blame for his lack of foresight as to where it would end up. (Or did he know, but thought, according to his 'higher-truth', that it was the best thing for the 'new world order'?)

2. Post Tienanmen Square. At that time there was limited trade with China, and, as i remember, trade sanctions were placed on China as a containment policy. There was also strong public sentiment in the west to reject the totalitarianism of the CCP. Australia's PM of the time, Bob Hawke, famously broke down sobbing on TV at a memorial for the slain protesters. But then came the rise of 'economic rationalism', with it's core principle of not getting caught up in politics or morality, but simply doing whatever makes the most money in the immediate future. As such the sanctions were all lifted, 'the pivot to China' began, and UFWD began its push into western institutions - and so we've arrived at the situation we are in today. (note: you can also blame economic rationalism for dragging out the use of fossil fuels - long after we had alternatives)

Things can still be done - but it takes political will. First job is sort out manufacturing. It's beyond absurd that we are reliant on a totalitarian regime for half the goods in our house. Same way i eventually managed to get the tree down and cut-up. It's a difficult job, pity i didn't do it sooner, but it was still doable.