This is what we were talking about - the never-ending live-fire exercises with the potential to play havoc with the supply chain.

That's the game I see them playing. Creeping and encroaching to whatever extent they can, then waiting until that is the new normal. China holds all the cards now. Let's say their navy vessels get to the point at which they're more or less constantly visible from the Taiwan coast, at least with binoculars. What then? And what is to stop them from getting to that point? I mean, they've crossed the proverbial line already, nobody does shit, so why not just keep creeping up?

The fact is that they know that neither Taiwan nor the US is going to stop them. I think they're going to just slowly, methodically, subsume Taiwan. It's happening before our eyes. Then, they may pounce and take the quick route of a blitzkrieg if necessary. That's what they're getting into the position for, but they may not have to do it. They might be able to just bring Taiwan to its knees economically.

At what point does the US apply trade sanctions on China? (forget about Aus - never is the short answer)

It can't. It would be economic suicide for the US. China has massively outplayed the US on trade.

Can US survive a trade cutoff with China?

Nope, because we don't manufacture shit.

The hand has been dealt, the cards largely played, and China has won. The world is just in denial at this point.