That's a good analysis you wrote - it does seem like the deal has been done.

Except that in the Cuban missile crisis, Russia backed down. They're not going to do that this time. Why should they? If they've struck a deal with China, which clearly they have, then the assumption is that they, meaning Russia and China, hold the cards, the cards being oil, production of goods, and wheat.

The one big card they don't hold is chip manufacturing, most of which lies in Taiwan and the US.

But if Putin succeeds in taking Ukraine, what is to stop China from taking Taiwan?