That's a bit bleak, but probably true. Any way you slice it, it's hard to see how the western world can function without Chinese goods/money - which doesn't leave much room for doing anything.

It is bleak, maybe overly so. I mean there is hope that everything will be resolved peacefully, and hopefully that will happen. But if China decides that it's tired of waiting and puts on the serious squeeze, I don't see the west coming to the rescue. The US is economically bogged down in Ukraine, plus its sending a shitload of weapons there, depleting stocks.

There's another angle to this for the US. Its bases in Okinawa and Guam are extremely unpopular. In fact the US is being forced to relocated troops from Okinawa to Guam as a result of a string of horrid crimes committed by US soldiers.

Strategists must have entertained the cynical view that in the event of China taking Taiwan, US bases might get a boost of support. Plus, Marcos Jr. just won the presidency in the Philippines, and I can see the US using the fall of Taiwan as a selling point to get more of a presence in the Philippines and possibly other places like Palau. I mean, the US military will never have a formal presence in Taiwan (well, never say never, but...), so in a sense, the fall of Taiwan would have some positive strategic outcome for the US.

There currently appears to be zero-will in Australia to de-couple from this trade-trap. Politicians know it would cause economic pain in the short term, which would cause them to lose the election - so - just forget about it ...

Exactly the same situation in the US.

There's a (large) portion of Taiwanese who simply want to be left alone - they don't want to become a political plaything for either the US or China, but that seems a forlorn hope now.

Yeah, and this is the tragedy of it all. It's the Taiwanese who just want to hang out and sell their zhenzhunaicha and computer chips who will suffer the consequences. I just can't imagine China occupying Taiwan. I do sort of think a lot of people in Taiwan have their head in the sand as a natural reaction. I mean, how else can you respond? It's striking, though, when you see or read interviews of Taiwanese brushing off any threat of invasion just like the Ukrainians did up to the hour the Russians attacked.