Crisis Weaponization (General)

by dan, Saturday, November 25, 2023, 18:57 (241 days ago) @ dulan drift

Wow! A lot going on in this post! But I think it rightly ties together what might appear to be disparate events happening around the world.

It's pure speculation, but prima facie it looks like CCP giving Albanese a taste of what their newly negotiated relationship is really like - a reminder to stay in line or we'll give you something to really go on with.

This could very well be. The Internet outage is clear as mud. China and Russia have had exercises around Japan and have been clearly cooperating more closely. It's not a jump to read between the lines and have the above speculations.

Back to Taiwan, i was thinking how Covid worked brilliantly to crush the HK uprising, & wondering if CCP was contemplating something similar for Taiwan - not necessarily another virus - but some kind of crisis that could justify rolling into Taiwan to 'keep everyone safe'. It would probably have to align with a KMT presidential victory or come immediately after an invasion.

I keep coming back to this in my mind. Before Covid, Hong Kong was an absolute tinderbox. It wasn't ready to explode, it was exploding. And it must have completely freaked the CCP out. You can imagine how, if HK had succeeded in demanding more freedoms, or maintaining what they had, how that would have sent a message to the rest of China, particularly once the inevitable real estate meltdown started. Covid nipped it all in the bud.

The other interesting question is to what extent are the wars in Ukraine & Palestine proxy wars designed to disperse US military resources, & are there other 'hotspots' that could be ignited to develop this strategy. The support of Russia is well-documented, but it appears Hamas also had a helping hand in launching their attack. I remember being shocked a few years ago to find that Hamas had signed a statement saying CCP's treatment of Uyghurs was perfectly fine - you'd imagine that must have been a quid pro quo deal - was covertly supporting the Hamas attack the 'quo'?

Again, what I've been wondering. Those who cry 'conspiracy theory' would claim that Russia, China, and Iran are not smart enough to pull that off. Really? They're smart enough to become nuclear powers, to be able to command the South China Sea and build islands in it. And yet you don't think they can coordinate wars on three fronts? Of course they're smart enough to pull that off.

The war in Ukraine has already diminished the US ability politically, economically, and militarily, and the war in Palestine is taking a huge political toll on the US. Iraq and Syria are still smoldering and requiring US resources.

If China and Russia, and presumably Iran and North Korea, are really in some coordinated strategy here, here's the thing --

First, there's a reserve currency card that hasn't been played yet. If the US were forced to fight two wars directly on two fronts on opposite sides of the world, it would drive the USD into even more debt, which China would hold to a large extent and which it could use to screw the US by working with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and everyone else who is sick of getting screwed by trade dependence on the USD to dump it for a different reserve/trade currency, probably the Yuan.

War cost money, and the US doesn't have any. The only way it can do what it does is because the USD is the reserve currency. So it can print as much as it likes to service its dept. It's a shell game. A 'King with no clothes', bizarre time in history.

China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela... they have plenty of oil, weapons, and people to defend themselves with. It's a question of attrition and will.

That's not to pass comment on the rights or wrongs of either war - they both seem quite murky - but only wondering are they connected to a larger grand plan. If they are, it would have ramifications for timing of an invasion - meaning you'd have to go while these proxy wars were playing out.

Yes, that's true. Russia could keep this going for at least a couple more years I imagine. How long were they in Afghanistan before they finally threw in the towel? It was a while.

A final consideration is whether Philippines is also in the cross-hairs. CCP has been ramping up military intimidation there - could they be looking at a two-for-one deal? That is, if/when they invade Taiwan, would they also invade PPE? Strategically, it would make some sense - might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb - & the alternative would be leaving a US launch pad right on their door-step.

Excellent point. If China goes head on into war, I can see that being the case. They'd have to assume that to get and defend Taiwan, they'd at least have to control some of the northern islands of the Philippines, or build more of the new islands in the area like they seem to enjoy doing so much.

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