I can see how they could set up a false flag operation to give it a reason to 'protect' or 'liberate' Pratas. They could claim all sorts of things, drug running on the island, piracy, etc.

But once they're on, I don't think anybody, including Taiwan, is going to risk attacking to get it back. That would make Taiwan appear to be the aggressor.

China is very good at turning up the heat on the frog. Look how they've built all these islands, and they keep building, and the world doesn't do shit, and once they're built, nobody can do anything about it.

That's the thing about frog-boiling - increasing the temp at just the right rate.

Pratas is an interesting case as he points out, there's no civilian pop. Taiwan's claim to it is pretty tenuous, actually - it's very far away. As you say, it wouldn't be hard to make a strong PR campaign in China for taking it - but hard to make one for taking it back.