War in Taiwan 2023: Blockade (General)

by dan, Sunday, April 09, 2023, 05:49 (470 days ago) @ dulan drift

You might be right about the internet. We'll see where this goes. Seems clear now that a blockade will be the first step of any prolonged conflict.

That's right. They've practiced it twice now, that we know of. Who knows how many times they've practiced it on the cyber front. And it puts any country claiming to be there to defend Taiwan in a spot. In order to break a blockade, they (the US) would have to shoot first, and if they do that, they lose the propaganda war. Meanwhile, the Taiwan economy and NTD would sink overnight.

At least this one is only meant to last three days, but this is exactly the kind of thing that could spark something bigger.

And it would start by somebody other than China shooting first, most likely, which would give China an excuse to go on the offensive (as a defensive act).

I think they're going to just slowly tighten the noose while at the same time opening a door. "Hey, Taiwan, here's the way out! We'll help!"

Meanwhile, the USD as reserve currency is being challenged.

Dumping the Dollar: Will a new BRICS currency replace the US currency for trade?

The BRICS collective, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is working on a common currency in an attempt to ditch the US dollar and push back against America’s dominance. The move comes as Moscow and Beijing call for de-dollarisation in the face of Western sanctions

Brazil, China ditch US dollar for trade payments, favour yuan

Brazil and China have agreed to bypass the US dollar when paying for trade goods - here’s why it’s a massive deal.

Could the US Dollar Collapse?

Currencies can and do collapse, but it’s not a minor event. When a currency collapses, it’s down to a significant economic or political event in a country that has a huge impact on its citizens.

It’s not a likely outcome at all in most countries around the world, and that’s particularly true for the United States. This is down to the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency.

But if that status is challenged or there's a second reserve currency, it would make it easier for China to move on Taiwan.

These developments in the world economy are, I think, pretty enormous and under reported. But it will take some time for them to establish this new reserve currency or basket of currencies. It won't happen overnight, but it could happen in a matter of a couple years perhaps, and once even the foundation and set of agreements for this BRICS currency is in place, a conflict would allow the BRICS countries to make it happen much faster. They wouldn't be starting from scratch.

A war, or blockade, could send the world economy into a freefall, that, as things stand now, would strengthen the dollar, making the world even more dependent (via economic vulnerability to a collapsing dollar) on the US, something China obviously doesn't want. But if there's an alternate system in place, ready to go, then such conflict could result in that new currency getting an immediate and decisive move of support, it could be the event that actually propels the new currency to replace the dollar or at least stand with it.

We're living in interesting times.

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