Thinking about the Philippines escalations you raised, could it be that Xi is thinking to take a section of PPE as his first move? Strategically, it would make sense - make Taiwan easier to hold if you already have a base in northern PPE.

Here's some more diu-lien (face-losing) Aus behaviour:

Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to better communication between the countries after meetings in Canberra this week.
Li departed Australia as videos and photos of clashes between Chinese coastguard personnel and navy personnel from the Philippines during a confrontation in the South China Sea were released.
The Philippines said Monday's interception by Chinese vessels left two of its ships damaged and sailors injured, including one who lost a thumb

Classic 'fuck you' going out the door that CCP always marks their meetings with Aus leaders - it's almost funny - promising better military communications as you blindside them on military escalation.

The Australian government (whoever that is) said it was gravely concerned by the Chinese actions.
"This is an escalation in a pattern of deeply concerning and destabilising behaviour by China."

They got that right, so they can't plead ignorance. It's another way of putting Dan's accumulation continuum. Which explains a lot of things in life, actually, not only China's strategy.

"This conduct endangers peace and security in the region, threatens lives and livelihoods, and creates risks of miscalculation and escalation."

Right, so why are we dangerously reliant on a country that does that?