War in Taiwan 2024 (General)

by dan, Friday, January 05, 2024, 19:29 (199 days ago) @ dulan drift

Both parties would likely prefer to keep it contained - along the lines of the Ukraine War - so bombing China is a big step - invites retaliation. That's your WW3 scenario.

Yes, and maybe contained to outlying islands or some skirmish in the S. China Sea, perhaps involving the Philippines. It might even use a Philippine conflict as a proxy play war.

Though even if it's limited to Taiwan, the economic fallout would be colossal. Controlling chip production alone would be crippling.

That might be the war game CCP plays - prep-up with steel, essentials, launch a contained war on Taiwan (that doesn't damage the chip factories) - sink everyone else by shutting down the supply chain. See who blinks first.

But there's another series of scenarios here, and that is one in which both China and the US benefit from a controlled conflict. And this could take any number of forms, such as one involving the Philippines or contested islands.

Here's the thing. China's economy is tanking. The US has printed so much currency it's laughable. None of this can go on much longer. But if they have a controlled conflict, both countries have an excuse to reign in or otherwise overhaul their economies and currencies. You can imagine how a skirmish in the South China Sea, perhaps including something happening on one of Taiwan's islands, or that of the Philippines, when combined with a cyberattack on some critical infrastructure and, of course, some major development in the war in the Middle East could propel economies into major changes.

My point is that Chinese and US banking infrastructure could benefit from a limited war, one that doesn't destroy chip infrastructure or even drive Taiwan closer to reunification. All it has to do is help the Man strengthen his control and make people fall in line.

The Man is in China and the US. They're partners. They'll have play wars. Real wars would use nukes, right? Isn't that what war is? Kill everybody on the other side until they relent? Men, women, children, dogs, cats, babies, kill them all. Isn't that what the US did in WWII?

So, the US and China won't do that. They'll do something that benefits each side. It will be something shocking but, I'm guessing, not terribly devastating, well, aside from the thousands of lives of peasants that will be lost.

And it will be combined with other events to convince those peasants who were spared to do what the Man says, and thank him for helping them out.

And there will be parades and maybe new public holidays.

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