I still think it's all going to come down to fiat currency validity and health. The system is breaking down quite rapidly in the sense the it's starting to affect social order, and when social order breaks down, war happens.

There's this global interdependence of markets, as we've discussed with regards to trade, but it also plays into fiat and the USD as the reserve currency. That currency hegemony is getting attacked and it will eventually be toppled. It might take 500 years, or five. But it's inevitable as history shows.

But beyond all that is that the global monetary system is absolutely fucked. How long can countries print money and expect that money to be taken seriously?

When it costs 100x to buy a loaf of bread, what happens?