Nick Triggle, BBC health expert: Rising infections in the UK are being driven by the Delta variant, first identified in India, which now accounts for 90% of infections. If it wasn't for the Delta variant, the government would in all likelihood be announcing the go-ahead for a full unlock.

I'm confused - if the vaccines are highly effective against Delta, and the UK is heavily vaccinated ...?

That much can be seen from how quickly infection levels are rising. The trajectory we are on means we could see January levels of infection by the end of July.

Hell! That's square one.

Exactly what that means for hospital admissions is less clear.

Here we go with the 'less clear - no evidence' fallback.

(I)t is even possible the immunity built up by the vaccines will have started to halt the growth by then.

It's even possible!? We've come a long way from vaccines are "highly effective" against Delta, Nick. Now it's 'even possible'. Next stop?