He has some good reasoning re an invasion being more imminent than is currently predicted, but re taking Pratas Island, i'd ask 'How are you gonna hold it?' Wouldn't you be a sitting duck? Your forces stuck out on a military island would make them vulnerable to being bombed off the map.

Good point. I think much would come down to whether anybody would really want to go to war over Pratas. Their gamble would be that they could take it without starting much of a shooting war, then it would put Taiwan in the position of attacking Chinese forces, at least that's how China would play it in the media, and this would largely come down to an information/propaganda war.

China might also just put a blockade on Pratas. They have already started interfering with Philippines resupply ships, and the world didn't bat an eye. I can see how they could set up a false flag operation to give it a reason to 'protect' or 'liberate' Pratas. They could claim all sorts of things, drug running on the island, piracy, etc.

But once they're on, I don't think anybody, including Taiwan, is going to risk attacking to get it back. That would make Taiwan appear to be the aggressor.

China is very good at turning up the heat on the frog. Look how they've built all these islands, and they keep building, and the world doesn't do shit, and once they're built, nobody can do anything about it.