So his headline is that an invasion might occur as soon as this month - in fact he talks about mid-August, which is now.

He has some good reasoning re an invasion being more imminent than is currently predicted, but re taking Pratas Island, i'd ask 'How are you gonna hold it?' Wouldn't you be a sitting duck? Your forces stuck out on a military island would make them vulnerable to being bombed off the map.

Unless they don't care about that & are simply looking for a trigger point - or a diversion.

He only gives a Pratas attack as one example, & canvasses other options, including a 'frog in the boiling water' scenario with escalating blockades, which we've discussed before.

Kinmen might be easier to hold coz you could defend it from the mainland & as he points out, there's an element of familiarity between Kinmen & China locals.

What's your take?