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nCov (General)

by dulan drift, Saturday, March 21, 2020, 12:08 (70 days ago) @ dulan drift

Interestingly, there's no definitive answer as to how the virus originated. The general scientific consensus is that it 'probably' came from bats - there's a 96% similarity with a known virus extracted from a bat in China in 2015. But it's still a different strain. A minority of other scientists, including one from Taiwan, have speculated that it may have escaped from one of two research labs in Wuhan which were known to be studying cornona virus. One of those labs is 250 metres from the Wuhan Seafood Market. The unusual 4-protein structure led them to believe it was more likely man-made than a natural mutation. These scientists have been ridiculed as conspiracy theorists, which, given we don't know the actual answer, seems a bit silly.

Yes, it's ok to speculate that it probably came from bats - that a bat might have passed it to a pangolin - which might have been sold at the market.

Also seems plausible to speculate that the virus was being studied at a nearby university where due to a lapse in security it escaped. Not sure why other scientists are howling this down without definitive proof.

Whatever the reason is, i'd really love to know for sure. For a start, surely the bat-pangolin theory would be pretty easy to verify. Wouldn't you just interrogate the first reported cases, ask them 'Did you eat or handle bat or pangolin?'
Wouldn't you have seized any wildlife at the market and tested it?

Alternatively, wouldn't you release information on whatever version of corona virus it was that was being studied in Wuhan?

For me this is the frustrating thing. We've had this simple event that has decimated the world economy and caused a massive intrusion of government into our lives but we don't have a clear answer as to why it happened. Without that, we don't have any sense of security that it won't happen again.

If it really was bats, fine, let's get the definitive evidence. How hard can it be? If it was another reason, human error, deliberate, or whatever, then let's find that out for sure.

This is the problem with it occurring in China - we will likely never know for sure. Meanwhile, like it or not, without a full investigation and explanation, conspiracy theories are going to go into supersonic overdrive. That, at least, is a scientific certainty.


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