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nCov (General)

by dan @, Saturday, February 01, 2020, 11:17 (235 days ago) @ dulan drift

At this point, I'm wondering if the whole world isn't massively overreacting. First of all, it appears that there may be many, many more cases than reported simply because a lot of people have mild symptoms or even no symptoms. If that's the case, this may end up being no more deadly than the common flu. And if that's true, then clearly we're overreacting.

On the other hand, we don't fully understand the virus, so I can see the need for caution. But if we find in a couple months from now that the fatality rate is indeed quite low, then I have to wonder what all the fuss is about.

Now, there's another possibility and that is that governments are taking so much precaution because there is evidence that this could be far more serious a virus than what we're being told, though I sort of doubt that's the case. Still, it's clear that it's highly contagious, and the low mortality rate makes it even more contagious and assures it's relative longevity compared to SARS and MERS, both of which tended to kill a high enough percentage of their hosts to help in their downfall. nCoV may just turn out to be one tough, persistent bugger. And, with more carriers, I assume there's a greater likelihood that it could mutate.

In my on-line job, I work with a lot of teachers in China and the rest of East Asia, and many of them are locked out of school or left the country for CNY and can't get back in. Schools in Vietnam are now closing also. So it's causing a lot of disruption already for me and the company I work for.


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