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Australia Bushfire Season 2019-20 (Weather)

by dulan drift, Tuesday, November 12, 2019, 06:47 (35 days ago) @ dulan drift

The media (with help from politicians and fire brigade chiefs) is in full hysteria mode predicting the "worst fires in the history of Australia". It's going to be bad but not that bad.

Black Saturday was 46C with 80kph northerlies and tinder dry conditions. We're not at those levels. Here (and most of mid to northern NSW where the worst fires are) it's forecast to reach 35C with 30kph winds in the afternoon. It's pretty much dead calm at the moment.

The conditions around Sydney are the worst in the state with 37C forecast and 40kph north to north-westerlies, which are the dry dangerous one. There will then be a cool change which will bring winds of 65 kph from the south.

The media likes to mix those bits of info up to "temperatures near 40C with winds averaging 60- 70kph". Yes it's kind of true but the southerly change, although still dangerous, is not in the same league as a northerly: it's colder, carries more moisture, is usually short-lived, and will largely blow the fire back on itself.


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