You're spot on with the Plato's Cave analogy. It's impossible to tell what is really happening. One thing is for sure though -- nothing is 'ending' and indeed it appears that whatever stage the world is in with regards to conflict, it's only getting worse.

One thing that nobody is really talking about is how Putin has finally just come out and basically told Trump to go fuck himself. I'm not sure if Trump is truly such an idiot or if his, "Gosh, I'm really disappointed in Putin" bullshit is just that, bullshit, but I'm guessing it's the latter. Trump is Putin's boy. I've thought for a long time that Putin has something on Trump, and I still think that, so we can expect Puting to go on pounding Ukraine while Trump fakes disappointment.

In fact, your point about Iran warning us on their attack sort of supports my theory, and it's pretty clear that Iran was warned of our attack. So it's all for show, all for the domestic audiences, and at the end of the day, Putin, Trump, and Iran are to some extent cooperating.