This is now on track for mid or even south Taiwan. A day or so ago it was forecast to sail well-north of Taiwan.

That's a dangerous scenario - where you've only got 24 hrs to prepare.

If it maintains course, Hualien/Illan will cop the brunt, but it's trending south so Taidong is also in the picture. If the eye is 80k north of you then that's a lot better than it being the same distance south.

The modellers seem to be missing a bit of a trend this season. The H-steering ridge looks pretty entrenched forcing typhoons south or stright-runners. This is the 3rd one in a row that has gone way south of where it was originally predicted.

Check out that ridge - no way the Haikui is veering north through that.