MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 110NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DURING THIS TIME. AT THE APPROACH TO TAU 72 AND BEYOND, THE
COMPETING STEERING PATTERN INCREASES THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN TRACK
SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION EAST OF TAIWAN.
COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION), HWRF AND AFUM THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND
AND PLOW STRAIGHT INTO THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO
TAIWAN. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER, STAYS CLOSE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING TAU 72. AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC TRACK MOTION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATER TAUS, LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
OUT TO TAU 72, BECOMING MEDIUM THEREAFTER.

Like I said, we're fucked. Airlines are going to be dealing with 4,000+ stranded tourists on Guam WHEN the airport opens.

The bet is on. No wager on your part. Beers on me if all goes smoothly.