That's an interesting analysis.

Big huge story #3
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

The importance of this story isn't so much what Biden did or didn't say, or how much he can remember what he said, the importance of this story is that it is a national story in the US, and that Taiwan is slowly becoming a household name in the US, even though Americans still surely confuse it with Thailand.

That's interesting and funny. Though good on Biden for saying it. Why not? The 'ambiguity' has outlived it's usefulness - it only encourages China. Give the CCP leadership something to think about - do you want to risk losing your whole power stranglehold due to a war in Taiwan?

There's a big story on Reuters today - but it's one of those fancy presentation style ones that takes forever (more than a few seconds) to load so i lost patience with it. But got me thinking while i was waiting: the 'seize' an out-lying island might not be the way to go after all.

Although they could take Dong Sya (Pratas Is) without any trouble, and it would present US with a quandary over whether to defend it, the upshot would be that US would immediately take up positions around/on Taiwan to fortify it - making a full-scale invasion much more difficult, if not impossible.

Therefore, if China does act, it would likely go straight to a full invasion - then try to dig in.

The map of the Chinese sorties into Taiwan airspace are curious - basically all in the same area - around the south west - seems to be one flight south east of Orchid Island - but they're not exactly buzzing the 101. I'm no master war technician, but could this be a decoy strategy to drag focus down to this area while preparing for an invasion in a different spot? Maybe they will go straight for Taipei - the Palace Museum would be a great propaganda coup.