This has been a very active week with regards to news stories regarding Taiwan. The stories were largely upstaged by whatever that useless meeting of power brokers was in Europe regarding climate change.

But let's take a look at what has happened in the last seven days:

Big huge story #1:
MEPs defy Chinese pressure with visit to Taiwan
In a defiant move against China, seven members of the European Parliament have landed in Taipei for a three-day official mission to discuss disinformation and foreign electoral intervention.

This is a pretty astounding development. It made barely a ripple in the media but I don't remember anything like this happening in the last 25 years. It's remarkable.

Big huge story #2
U.S. No Longer Lists Foreign Troops on Taiwan as Trigger for China Conflict
The latest Pentagon report on the Chinese military has omitted the scenario of foreign troops being deployed on Taiwan in a list of actions that the U.S. military assessed could trigger conflict from China.

This seems to be a proactive strategic and diplomatic move in response to recent reports (which should also be on this list) that US forces are in Taiwan training their military. If the US continues to acknowledge that this presence could cause a Chinese invasion, then it accepts some responsibility if indeed an invasion happens. But now that it no longer acknowledges that, it has covered its ass. This, in effect, indirectly communicates that the US does accept that Chinese military action in the near future is very possible.

Big huge story #3
Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

The importance of this story isn't so much what Biden did or didn't say, or how much he can remember what he said, the importance of this story is that it is a national story in the US, and that Taiwan is slowly becoming a household name in the US, even though Americans still surely confuse it with Thailand. The issue of Taiwan is forcing itself on to the world stage against the wishes of world leaders, similar to how the question of a lab leak forced its way. Biden would probably be thrilled if Taiwan just sank into the ocean so he didn't have to deal with it. But that ain't gonna happen. Sorry Joe.

And there are many more stories just in the last few days. Here in Japan, Taiwan is in the news every single day, and it's always due to the potential for conflict with China.

It looks like between right now and 2027, at the latest, is a critical period. I believe there's a Taiwan election in 2024, and China may want to wait to see if the KMT wins before taking action. There's also a US election that year, although that won't matter much.

There is a big wildcard here, and that is the economy. If the Chinese economy or social structure starts breaking down, watch out. And that really is the big question here, the economy. If the currency markets start going crazy or equities dive, anything goes. If this real estate debt crisis in China blows up and people start turning on local governments, watch out.