That's an interesting thought. I think Guam would backfire because it would result in Americans, most of whom can't find Guam on map, rallying behind a war with China, wherever it happens.

But the Marshall Islands is an interesting strategy. It would certainly serve as a distraction and suck resources away from Taiwan. So I think those would be two very different scenarios. Guam would backfire, but the Marshall Islands, I don't know.

Now, a third possibility is that they just say, to hell with it, and attack Okinawa. That's where all the very close military forces are that would be responding to a Taiwan attack. I mean, if they attack Guam, they've waged war the the US, so if they're going to go that far, why not hit Guam and Okinawa?

Yet another scenario is that they cause some sort of resource sucking event somewhere that doesn't make them look like the bad guy, whatever that is. Cyber attack maybe?

But the biggest likelihood, I think, is a false flag event in which they stage an attack by Taiwan or US forces against some poor, lonely Chinese Coast Guard vessel just out there making sure the world is safe from killer turtles and such. This would: 1) allow them to respond 'defensively' by attacking Taiwan, 2) put the US on the defensive, basically complicating any response, and 3) rally Chinese people behind their military actions.