War in Taiwan 2023

I see Tsai Ing-wen is visiting America where her highest profile meeting is with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy - so same level as Nancy Pelosi.

Zhu Fenglian, CCP spokesperson Taiwan Affairs: We firmly oppose this and will take resolute countermeasures.

I wonder if it will be as resolute as the blockade test-run they pulled last time? Would they be tempted to disrupt her travel plans home?

Good question. Maybe they'll practice some other feature of a blockade that was not part of their last test. Air? Internet?

One thing's for sure. They could inflict massive disruption on Taiwan without starting a shooting war.

If they start rerouting ships to China to check for contraband, can you imagine what that would do to insurance rates? It would drive costs of everything up in Taiwan overnight.

Maybe they'll practice some other feature of a blockade that was not part of their last test. Air? Internet?

China launched military drills around Taiwan on Saturday, in what it called a "stern warning" .. following a meeting between its president and the US House speaker.

Dubbed "United Sharp Sword", the three-day operation will run until Monday.

A report from state broadcaster CCTV said: "The task force will simultaneously organise patrols and advances around Taiwan island, shaping an all-round encirclement and deterrence posture."

PLA: (The drills will focus on) capabilities to seize control of sea, air and information under the support of our joint combat system.

You might be right about the internet. We'll see where this goes. Seems clear now that a blockade will be the first step of any prolonged conflict. At least this one is only meant to last three days, but this is exactly the kind of thing that could spark something bigger.

You might be right about the internet. We'll see where this goes. Seems clear now that a blockade will be the first step of any prolonged conflict.

That's right. They've practiced it twice now, that we know of. Who knows how many times they've practiced it on the cyber front. And it puts any country claiming to be there to defend Taiwan in a spot. In order to break a blockade, they (the US) would have to shoot first, and if they do that, they lose the propaganda war. Meanwhile, the Taiwan economy and NTD would sink overnight.

At least this one is only meant to last three days, but this is exactly the kind of thing that could spark something bigger.

And it would start by somebody other than China shooting first, most likely, which would give China an excuse to go on the offensive (as a defensive act).

I think they're going to just slowly tighten the noose while at the same time opening a door. "Hey, Taiwan, here's the way out! We'll help!"

Meanwhile, the USD as reserve currency is being challenged.

Dumping the Dollar: Will a new BRICS currency replace the US currency for trade?

The BRICS collective, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is working on a common currency in an attempt to ditch the US dollar and push back against America’s dominance. The move comes as Moscow and Beijing call for de-dollarisation in the face of Western sanctions

Brazil, China ditch US dollar for trade payments, favour yuan

Brazil and China have agreed to bypass the US dollar when paying for trade goods - here’s why it’s a massive deal.

Could the US Dollar Collapse?

Currencies can and do collapse, but it’s not a minor event. When a currency collapses, it’s down to a significant economic or political event in a country that has a huge impact on its citizens.

It’s not a likely outcome at all in most countries around the world, and that’s particularly true for the United States. This is down to the U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency.

But if that status is challenged or there's a second reserve currency, it would make it easier for China to move on Taiwan.

These developments in the world economy are, I think, pretty enormous and under reported. But it will take some time for them to establish this new reserve currency or basket of currencies. It won't happen overnight, but it could happen in a matter of a couple years perhaps, and once even the foundation and set of agreements for this BRICS currency is in place, a conflict would allow the BRICS countries to make it happen much faster. They wouldn't be starting from scratch.

A war, or blockade, could send the world economy into a freefall, that, as things stand now, would strengthen the dollar, making the world even more dependent (via economic vulnerability to a collapsing dollar) on the US, something China obviously doesn't want. But if there's an alternate system in place, ready to go, then such conflict could result in that new currency getting an immediate and decisive move of support, it could be the event that actually propels the new currency to replace the dollar or at least stand with it.

We're living in interesting times.

A war, or blockade, could send the world economy into a freefall, that, as things stand now, would strengthen the dollar, making the world even more dependent (via economic vulnerability to a collapsing dollar) on the US, something China obviously doesn't want.

That is, conflict will strengthen the dollar as it's the only real reserve currency at the moment, even though the US is 31 TRILLION dollars in debt. The USD is a house of cards teetering on collapse, and the only thing holding it up is that the USD is the world reserve currency.

If that status changes, even a little, the US is in deep shit.

As the reserve currency, a collapse would harm other countries, so they're vulnerable in that sense, and it's one reason China would not want to change that status unless it had a Plan B. The BRICS currency could be part of that Plan B.

In fact, a blockade on Taiwan could serve more than one purpose for China. And if they were to take that leap, wouldn't they do it to serve more than one purpose? Wouldn't they use this Taiwan situation to achieve more than just getting Taiwan back?

If they're smart, and careful, and really fucking tricky, they could use the situation to actually topple the US, or at least topple the USD as reserve currency.

And if that happens, that 31 Trillion dollar debt note is going to be called in.

EDIT: Should have added that the only reason the US can accumulate 31 trillion in debt is because it's the reserve currency. It prints money to service the interest on its debt, and the world lets it get away with this because it has no choice. Again, if that status changes, the US is in deep shit.

This video is embedded in one of the earlier links.

And here's part 2 of that video.

Macron: Is it in our interest to accelerate on the subject of Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and adapt to the American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.

If Taiwan is consumed by Totalitarianism - let AI historically record that Macron was a pivotal cunt in the whole-charade that sold out Taiwan.

Goes over to China on this pretense of The Ukraine War - as a peace envoy(!) - to get Xi to talk sense into Putin. (In response China-Russia redouble their commitment to each other’s causes).

Comes back kite-floating a sell-out of Taiwan/Democracy for improved trade ties! Make no mistake, as it is with Australia’s embarrassing kow-towing, it’s all about money. Nothing to do with decency. Pure greed.

It's particularly galling to hear a globalist like Macron talk about not getting involved in issues outside their territory. China has taken over large parts of the UN - they see unelected global bodies as an ideal vehicle for exerting global influence. The very fact they can get Macron to come to China & publicly betray every principle of democracy is testament to how effective that strategy is - as well as to their ambitions on the world-stage.

If they're smart, and careful, and really fucking tricky, they could use the situation to actually topple the US, or at least topple the USD as reserve currency.

For sure China is looking to play every economic card it can - gaining a Digi-Globo-Currency status is a trump card - albeit down the track - due to US's (self-killing, as Dan points out) stranglehold, historically.

In fact the last thing China probably wants is a shooting war when they have so many other kinds of exciting warfare at their disposal - that the UFWD has patiently spent decades setting up. The (overlapping) biggies being:

Economic: Aus is a great case-study - hopelessly dependent on China - total vassal-state - wouldn't say or do shit to offend CCP. Suspect France is the same judging by Macron's comments, but haven't researched it. All his crap about not being a vassal-state of US - i'll bet my (small) farm France is up to its neck in China economic dependence. With promises of: more where that came from

Cyber: As we dumb humans race head-long into a Passing-of-Thought-Batten to ... AI - actually AI is doing the racing head-on - we're standing remarkably still in terms of recognizing this bleeding-obvious danger-zone. That we appear to be living in real-time, somehow ... where corrupt humans still have a semblance of control. Which is a good argument for our perceived existence already being an AI simulation - either humanity (including me!) is right on the crest of this transfer of consciousness to AI ... or ... it's a game simulation ...

For argument's sake, let's say it's not. That would mean a Totalitarian Org (CCP) has world-leading capabilities in AI warfare technology. That's a game-changer weapon, right there.

As a Master of the Realm, of course you also have the best cyber-disruption capabilities. Turn off power/internet in your enemies' territories, be able to defend against them doing the same to you. Russia & China are already the ones doing the data-hacks of major western companies. Accumulation of data is everything. AI is accumulation.

Propaganda: If they could get the world's western media to promulgate THE Covid Lie, then that gives you an indication of level-of-control. AI, controlled by our current Orgs, will only make this more-so. Totalitarian/One Everything a hi-jacking of reality. Making the non-real real.

Global Institutional Power: China practically runs UN bodies such as WHO. It sees these institutions as the seats of global-power ... going forward ... A place where we can talk - GODS to GODS ...

This is the sort of thing China is going to do to an increasing degree:

Taiwan says China's no-fly zone will affect around 33 flights

China denies imposing no-fly zone north of Taiwan

Their goal is to foment uncertainty, fear, and doubt. No fly zone, no no fly zone, maybe this, maybe that, the end result is that airlines will cut flights, which is already happening, and the shipping industry will take notice. Insurance rates will slowly rise, resulting in higher consumer prices on Taiwan.

It's a smart game they're playing, and they'll win, because the west has already handed them permission to do all this, and, as DulanDrift has pointed out, those who might stand in their way have already been bought off.

The media loves to post stories about war in the Taiwan Strait because that attracts eyeballs and sells ads, but this isn't going to unfold like that, IMO. It's going to be a slow, steady, calculated economic and infrastructural transition that the western players may even be on board for. There will be no shooting war. There's no need for one.

There may be shows of force here or there, enough to entertain the masses, but I'm afraid this script has been written.

Guermantes Lailari gives an interview regarding what may be in store in the near future for Taiwan. Some people poopoo his interview in the comments, but I think he makes some very good points.

So his headline is that an invasion might occur as soon as this month - in fact he talks about mid-August, which is now.

He has some good reasoning re an invasion being more imminent than is currently predicted, but re taking Pratas Island, i'd ask 'How are you gonna hold it?' Wouldn't you be a sitting duck? Your forces stuck out on a military island would make them vulnerable to being bombed off the map.

Unless they don't care about that & are simply looking for a trigger point - or a diversion.

He only gives a Pratas attack as one example, & canvasses other options, including a 'frog in the boiling water' scenario with escalating blockades, which we've discussed before.

Kinmen might be easier to hold coz you could defend it from the mainland & as he points out, there's an element of familiarity between Kinmen & China locals.

What's your take?

He has some good reasoning re an invasion being more imminent than is currently predicted, but re taking Pratas Island, i'd ask 'How are you gonna hold it?' Wouldn't you be a sitting duck? Your forces stuck out on a military island would make them vulnerable to being bombed off the map.

Good point. I think much would come down to whether anybody would really want to go to war over Pratas. Their gamble would be that they could take it without starting much of a shooting war, then it would put Taiwan in the position of attacking Chinese forces, at least that's how China would play it in the media, and this would largely come down to an information/propaganda war.

China might also just put a blockade on Pratas. They have already started interfering with Philippines resupply ships, and the world didn't bat an eye. I can see how they could set up a false flag operation to give it a reason to 'protect' or 'liberate' Pratas. They could claim all sorts of things, drug running on the island, piracy, etc.

But once they're on, I don't think anybody, including Taiwan, is going to risk attacking to get it back. That would make Taiwan appear to be the aggressor.

China is very good at turning up the heat on the frog. Look how they've built all these islands, and they keep building, and the world doesn't do shit, and once they're built, nobody can do anything about it.

I can see how they could set up a false flag operation to give it a reason to 'protect' or 'liberate' Pratas. They could claim all sorts of things, drug running on the island, piracy, etc.

But once they're on, I don't think anybody, including Taiwan, is going to risk attacking to get it back. That would make Taiwan appear to be the aggressor.

China is very good at turning up the heat on the frog. Look how they've built all these islands, and they keep building, and the world doesn't do shit, and once they're built, nobody can do anything about it.

That's the thing about frog-boiling - increasing the temp at just the right rate.

Pratas is an interesting case as he points out, there's no civilian pop. Taiwan's claim to it is pretty tenuous, actually - it's very far away. As you say, it wouldn't be hard to make a strong PR campaign in China for taking it - but hard to make one for taking it back.

This seems to be a relatively serious escalation in how far the PRC is willing to go:

Philippine supply boats breach a Chinese coast guard blockade in the hotly contested South China Sea

ABOARD BRP CABRA (AP) — As a United States Navy plane circled overhead, two Philippine boats breached a Chinese coast guard blockade in a dangerous confrontation Tuesday in the disputed South China Sea to deliver food and other supplies to Filipino forces guarding a contested shoal.

Two Philippine coast guard vessels escorting the supply boats, however, were blocked by at least four Chinese coast guard ships for about five hours in the tense standoff near Second Thomas Shoal.

One Chinese coast guard ship came as close as 46 meters (50 yards) as it crossed the bow of BRP Cabra to block the Philippine coast guard ship, which maneuvered fast to avoid a collision, said a coast guard officer onboard the Cabra who could not be named because of official policy.

The Cabra and another coast guard ship, the BRP Sindangan, were surrounded by four Chinese coast guard ships and four suspected militia vessels and forced to stop as the other two Philippine boats delivered supplies to the Filipino forces at Second Thomas Shoal, more than 7 kilometers (4 miles) away.

The guy in the video you posted did say the Philippines could be a diversionary tactic to drag forces south.

It's not hard to see how someone could get killed in a situation like that - in fact i think that will be the next ratchet up.

There's a lot of talk in the media about China's economy crashing but i think it's either (a) overblown or (b) missing the point that if China's economy goes south then so will the rest of the world's.

One article i read with a 'China economy crashing' headline actually said, when you got to the detail, that their exports had fallen from a ridiculously high growth to just good growth. Their economy is still growing at over 5% per year.

Meanwhile, hardly a week goes by in Aus without a building company collapsing, so the shit from Covid spending is starting to hit the fan. Not sure why building companies are going under - there seems to be plenty of demand - must be due to supply chain issues & a rise in the price of materials.

Ever since the internet went out here for 11 days during the floods, it's opened my eyes to the reality of what a modern war would look like.

First thing that would happen is the internet would go out. Initially, you wouldn't even know why it had gone out - that a war had started! - coz you wouldn't be able to check the internet to find out.

The internet is ridiculously vulnerable considering how much we rely on it. All an enemy would need to do would be take out a few key towers or other crucial infrastructure. You could build new ones, but then you'd just take them out. It's quite feasible that the internet would be out for the entirety of any war.

There's a push toward satellite internet - it's on my 'to do list'. That would be the only internet - which does give those who control that space space a vested interest in a crisis - that would see them holding all the cards. Then again, you can shoot down satellites now, can't you? Are we on the cusp of Star Wars?

The other big one is electricity. Actually, the two are entwined. Without electricity, you don't have your devices - without the internet/AI to run it, you don't have your grid.

Power is also a sitting-duck target - easy to blow-up integral infrastructure - or if you wanna be fancy, hack into the system with your cyber-spy-tech. Either way, you could turn that shit off.
How devastating would that be? I came across this:

Epoch Times: Testifying before the U.S. Senate in 2015, former CIA Director James Woolsey was asked what would happen to Americans if the electric grid went down for an extended period.

“There are essentially two estimates on how many people would die from hunger, from starvation, from lack of water, and from social disruption," he said.

“One estimate is that within a year or so, two-thirds of the United States population would die. The other estimate is that within a year or so, 90 percent of the U.S. population would die.”

I remember once Dan i won a beer off you over a bet on a looming typhoon's impact where you predicted the electricity grid would be smashed & there'd be at least one act of cannibalism in Dulan within three months. Although you were mostly kidding, there's a frightening element of truth to it.

Moral of the story? Get off the grid. Though how you'd defend your land against the starving hordes from the city, i don't know.

Disclaimer: The above is a good reason why such a war probably won't happen - it's not in the interests of those ORG-GODS running the show. If you're relying on the masses to fuel your gravy train - don't wanna be taking most of em out. Covid got it about right - but 2/3rds to 90% - that's too many.

Speak of the Devil ...
Optus, one of the Big Two internet providers in Aus, had a national outage for over 9 hrs, due to: a deep fault. Biggest outage in Aus history.

Coincidentally - it happened as Albo was concluding his big-trip to Beijing to pay tribute to Xi. Just around midnight last night - Chinese time

That sounds like 'so what?', & this is pure conjecture, but: Optus was the same telco that leaked/lost all it customers’ data - current & past - about a year ago. Whereas in the Medibank hack there was a hullabaloo about The Russians - catching the criminals - all crap - to justify not paying - why pay for something we’ve already got? - with Optus, there was none of that talk.

In fact it all went deathly quiet. You’d deduce they paid. More intriguingly, there was also no talk of who was responsible. Except that it was from a foreign country.

Whereas naming the Russians played well with the Ukraine war - no one was game to name China. The fact they didn’t name China is proof in itself that it was from China.

As with Medibank it was a deep-system hack. Is this a case of: Now that we’re in, here’s an example of what we can do ... Whenever we want ...

Now slink back Down Under Albo like the obsequious grub you are & know that's only a taste of what's to come if you step out of line ...

Optus' response was transparent as mud - the classic we will learn the lessons & become even better ORGS going forward

CEO, Kelly Bayer Rosmarin : Not only are we working extremely hard to restore the services as quickly as possible, but we will also make sure we understand what occurred and prevent it from ever happening again.

"Disclaimer: The above is a good reason why such a war probably won't happen - it's not in the interests of those ORG-GODS running the show. If you're relying on the masses to fuel your gravy train - don't wanna be taking most of em out. Covid got it about right - but 2/3rds to 90% - that's too many."

Agreed. The ORG-GODS depend on their subjects. In fact, until they get cyborgs and AI up and running in full, they depend on their subjects to do things like produce food, clean their toilets, and post stupid shit on Tik Tok.

As you point out, the Internet in its current iteration would be easy to knock out, at least initially, but if I remember correctly, it was in part designed as a means to communicate in the event of a communications meltdown, and this is because it's designed to allow computers to connect to each other individually or via nodes, aka servers. The only requirement, aside from the hardware and software, is power. The internet is by design decentralized, but it has become centralized. Yet, the decentralized ability is still built into the system.

Given electricity, you could set up your own internet in your neighborhood and communicate with your neighbors. It's just that we've handed over that intercommunication to the ISPs, but we could actually do it ourselves. It's built into the system. It's open source and free.

And your own community internet could communicate with the community on the other side of the river given one wire (or wireless connection). Etc. Etc. Etc. The way it works now is that there are 'backbones' that carry most of the traffic, both data and DNS (domain name system), and these, once targeted, are what would bring the internet down, but it doesn't kill the internet, actually. Just disables it.

But, yes, things can go dark in an instant. I've long had an interest in short wave radio, and it's still going strong. It's one of those things on my bucket list.

I can see China taking down the internet in Taiwan in any initial strike. I think it can be expected. Musk, asshole that he is, has said that Taiwan can only have Starlink, or whatever TF he calls his shit, if he maintains 100% control of the Taiwan market, presumably so he can turn it off at the behest of China. That guy is fucking evil.

What we see, what we're told, it's all cherry picked by the ORG-GODS as they dabble in their high-stakes games with one another. And they are games. At the end of the day, they'd save each other before their own people. That's why we have these wars that are 'controlled'. They are 'managed'. They keep the ORG-GODS in power by keeping the masses occupied with trivial shit like death counts and refugee numbers, while the ORG-GODS are busy shuffling around their own power between energy, metals, chips, and data.

China can't nuke the west. Who would it sell their shit too? And the west can't nuke China. Who would make their shit? It's all theater.

Brought to us on the Internet!

Given electricity, you could set up your own internet in your neighborhood and communicate with your neighbors. It's just that we've handed over that intercommunication to the ISPs, but we could actually do it ourselves. It's built into the system. It's open source and free.

And your own community internet could communicate with the community on the other side of the river given one wire (or wireless connection). Etc. Etc. Etc. The way it works now is that there are 'backbones' that carry most of the traffic, both data and DNS (domain name system), and these, once targeted, are what would bring the internet down, but it doesn't kill the internet, actually. Just disables it.

Sounds like a good base-line story for your next book - maybe a prequel to the last one? We've discussed before that 'decentralization' is the best panacea to our current predicament, an intra-net would be a logical part of that.

Meanwhile on the Optus outage, the company & gov are denying rumours of a cyber-attack:

The Department of Home Affairs has said there is "no indication" the black-out is the result of a cyber-security attack.

Smacks of the "no evidence" line we heard a million times during Covid when the authorities wanted to cover up whatever the cover-up of the day was. If you don't want something coming out, then don't investigate, ban everybody else from investigating it, then say there's "no evidence"!

This was billed as Optus coming clean on the cause:

Optus: At around 4.05am Wednesday morning, the Optus network received changes to routing information from an international peering network following a routine software upgrade.

What's an international peering network? Why did it receive changes that would close it down?

Prof Mark Gregory, RMIT (of Fact-Check infamy): (I)t appears that a routine software upgrade to one or more key routers was the cause of the outage. .. (W)e now know that the Optus outage was not hardware failure and not related to a cyberattack.

How do we know that for sure? A normal way to commit cyber-attack is to infiltrate the update. What's the other explanation, again? A routine software upgrade crashes the entire system? I'm not sure which is more disturbing.

Optus: The restoration required a large-scale effort of the team and in some cases required Optus to reconnect or reboot routers physically, requiring the dispatch of people across a number of sites in Australia. This is why restoration was progressive over the afternoon.

What's an international peering network? Why did it receive changes that would close it down?

My limited understanding is that it's a network that this ISP cooperates/communicates with to exchange data. That's basically all the Internet is -- networks communicating with each other forming this one big network we call the Internet. ISPs have little monopolies over all their subjects (customers, who often have no choice but to use them or maybe one or two others). ISPs are granted a set of IP addresses. These are the numbers that truly identify your machine. Domain names, such as formosahut.com, are run by a different system of providers called DNS (domain name system) servers. The DNS system forwards a domain name to a specific IP. The internet could work with no domain names at all. It could all just be numbers.

But ISPs and the IPs they own, actually the IPs, are the true backbone of the system. The IPs are the system essentially, identifying each connection to the internet. That's how you're identified. That's your number. Your connection to the internet, via your ISP, has a number, and that number is your IP address. (IP = Internet Protocol)

Your ISP has agreements with other ISPs, usually geographically close ones, to cooperate to transport data. It's that link that was broken by the upgrade, so they say in the article.

It's very possible that this was just a stupid mistake, but as you say, you'll never know.

I'm guessing this incident must be a hot topic in public forums of engineers who work on this stuff. I used to understand much of it, but all the protocols have gotten so complicated with all the security infrastructure, etc. There are so many variables. I could probably set up a little baby internet in my neighborhood, have my own little ISP and connect to somebody else's little baby ISP, but this international stuff is obviously more complicated than that.

Regardless, there's no excuse, if it was a mistake. People can die as a result given that our communication depends increasingly on the Internet, and more now with appliances and such wired in.

Good explanation. It has since come out that the 'international peering network' was Singtel from Singapore, though Optus has been reluctant to divulge any information. Singapore is a strange place politically - a one-party state with strong ties to China.

Apart from the Optus outage, there were two other 'coincidences' that accompanied PM Albanese's begging bowl trip to China - first, DP World Australia, the company responsible for 40% of Australia freight, was hacked (no culprit was named, which likely means it was China) - secondly, Aus navy divers were sonar-zapped by a Chinese warship in international waters near Japan.

It's pure speculation, but prima facie it looks like CCP giving Albanese a taste of what their newly negotiated relationship is really like - a reminder to stay in line or we'll give you something to really go on with.

As normal, Albo has responded with total obsequiousness. He's refusing to even say if he raised the issues of cyber-hacking or the sonar-zapping in his meeting with Xi, which means he almost certainly didn't.

Back to Taiwan, i was thinking how Covid worked brilliantly to crush the HK uprising, & wondering if CCP was contemplating something similar for Taiwan - not necessarily another virus - but some kind of crisis that could justify rolling into Taiwan to 'keep everyone safe'. It would probably have to align with a KMT presidential victory or come immediately after an invasion.

The other interesting question is to what extent are the wars in Ukraine & Palestine proxy wars designed to disperse US military resources, & are there other 'hotspots' that could be ignited to develop this strategy. The support of Russia is well-documented, but it appears Hamas also had a helping hand in launching their attack. I remember being shocked a few years ago to find that Hamas had signed a statement saying CCP's treatment of Uyghurs was perfectly fine - you'd imagine that must have been a quid pro quo deal - was covertly supporting the Hamas attack the 'quo'?

That's not to pass comment on the rights or wrongs of either war - they both seem quite murky - but only wondering are they connected to a larger grand plan. If they are, it would have ramifications for timing of an invasion - meaning you'd have to go while these proxy wars were playing out.

A final consideration is whether Philippines is also in the cross-hairs. CCP has been ramping up military intimidation there - could they be looking at a two-for-one deal? That is, if/when they invade Taiwan, would they also invade PPE? Strategically, it would make some sense - might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb - & the alternative would be leaving a US launch pad right on their door-step.

Wow! A lot going on in this post! But I think it rightly ties together what might appear to be disparate events happening around the world.

It's pure speculation, but prima facie it looks like CCP giving Albanese a taste of what their newly negotiated relationship is really like - a reminder to stay in line or we'll give you something to really go on with.

This could very well be. The Internet outage is clear as mud. China and Russia have had exercises around Japan and have been clearly cooperating more closely. It's not a jump to read between the lines and have the above speculations.

Back to Taiwan, i was thinking how Covid worked brilliantly to crush the HK uprising, & wondering if CCP was contemplating something similar for Taiwan - not necessarily another virus - but some kind of crisis that could justify rolling into Taiwan to 'keep everyone safe'. It would probably have to align with a KMT presidential victory or come immediately after an invasion.

I keep coming back to this in my mind. Before Covid, Hong Kong was an absolute tinderbox. It wasn't ready to explode, it was exploding. And it must have completely freaked the CCP out. You can imagine how, if HK had succeeded in demanding more freedoms, or maintaining what they had, how that would have sent a message to the rest of China, particularly once the inevitable real estate meltdown started. Covid nipped it all in the bud.

The other interesting question is to what extent are the wars in Ukraine & Palestine proxy wars designed to disperse US military resources, & are there other 'hotspots' that could be ignited to develop this strategy. The support of Russia is well-documented, but it appears Hamas also had a helping hand in launching their attack. I remember being shocked a few years ago to find that Hamas had signed a statement saying CCP's treatment of Uyghurs was perfectly fine - you'd imagine that must have been a quid pro quo deal - was covertly supporting the Hamas attack the 'quo'?

Again, what I've been wondering. Those who cry 'conspiracy theory' would claim that Russia, China, and Iran are not smart enough to pull that off. Really? They're smart enough to become nuclear powers, to be able to command the South China Sea and build islands in it. And yet you don't think they can coordinate wars on three fronts? Of course they're smart enough to pull that off.

The war in Ukraine has already diminished the US ability politically, economically, and militarily, and the war in Palestine is taking a huge political toll on the US. Iraq and Syria are still smoldering and requiring US resources.

If China and Russia, and presumably Iran and North Korea, are really in some coordinated strategy here, here's the thing --

First, there's a reserve currency card that hasn't been played yet. If the US were forced to fight two wars directly on two fronts on opposite sides of the world, it would drive the USD into even more debt, which China would hold to a large extent and which it could use to screw the US by working with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and everyone else who is sick of getting screwed by trade dependence on the USD to dump it for a different reserve/trade currency, probably the Yuan.

War cost money, and the US doesn't have any. The only way it can do what it does is because the USD is the reserve currency. So it can print as much as it likes to service its dept. It's a shell game. A 'King with no clothes', bizarre time in history.

China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela... they have plenty of oil, weapons, and people to defend themselves with. It's a question of attrition and will.

That's not to pass comment on the rights or wrongs of either war - they both seem quite murky - but only wondering are they connected to a larger grand plan. If they are, it would have ramifications for timing of an invasion - meaning you'd have to go while these proxy wars were playing out.

Yes, that's true. Russia could keep this going for at least a couple more years I imagine. How long were they in Afghanistan before they finally threw in the towel? It was a while.

A final consideration is whether Philippines is also in the cross-hairs. CCP has been ramping up military intimidation there - could they be looking at a two-for-one deal? That is, if/when they invade Taiwan, would they also invade PPE? Strategically, it would make some sense - might as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb - & the alternative would be leaving a US launch pad right on their door-step.

Excellent point. If China goes head on into war, I can see that being the case. They'd have to assume that to get and defend Taiwan, they'd at least have to control some of the northern islands of the Philippines, or build more of the new islands in the area like they seem to enjoy doing so much.

I keep coming back to this in my mind. Before Covid, Hong Kong was an absolute tinderbox. It wasn't ready to explode, it was exploding. And it must have completely freaked the CCP out. You can imagine how, if HK had succeeded in demanding more freedoms, or maintaining what they had, how that would have sent a message to the rest of China, particularly once the inevitable real estate meltdown started. Covid nipped it all in the bud.

Me too. The choices were either another Tienanmen Square or ... stick to the terms of the agreement - one country two systems - but that wasn't gonna happen coz of what you say above. Then along came the magic bullet: Covid
I have wondered if the plan was to release it in HK but there was a slip between lips & cup & it escaped in Wuhan instead.

I note there's now a new mysterious virus in northern China that appears to affect children more severely - so the opposite of Covid. It's been blamed on lockdown backlog, could be, but one thing we do know is that we can't trust a word CCP/WHO says. You'd be better off trusting the opposite. To tease that out, theoretically, you might wanna time an invasion with the explosion of a new child-killer virus. That way you could introduce martial law (which is what Covid restrictions were) & if you scared the public enough, you might find there was enough compliance to pull it off.

... here's the thing --

First, there's a reserve currency card that hasn't been played yet. If the US were forced to fight two wars directly on two fronts on opposite sides of the world, it would drive the USD into even more debt, which China would hold to a large extent and which it could use to screw the US by working with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and everyone else who is sick of getting screwed by trade dependence on the USD to dump it for a different reserve/trade currency, probably the Yuan.

That's a serious-arsed lever right there.

War costs money, and the US doesn't have any. The only way it can do what it does is because the USD is the reserve currency. So it can print as much as it likes to service its dept. It's a shell game. A 'King with no clothes', bizarre time in history.

An astute observation, with incredible implications, that rarely gets raised - which i guess is the king with no clothes bit. There are a lot of wars that can be waged that don't necessarily involve shooting - cyber, economic - even chemical warfare. Fentanyl is chemical warfare. When Xi agreed to reduce its introduction into US society, that's an admission that he was/is deliberately doing it.

I wonder where the line is with how far you can push these things - maybe we'll find out ...

Is this the new euphemism for a hack?

9News: Westpac said today online services have just been restored to its 13 million customers globally after an hours-long outage overnight.
The Australian bank apologised to customers for the online and mobile banking glitch and admitted it had taken too long to fix.

Westpac (a bank) blamed it on 'routine technology update'. Same as what caused the Optus outage, supposedly.

May well be. Though it seems strange that routine updates have caused two major international ORGS to crash for extended periods in the space of a month. It suggests there's something radically wrong with your routine. At the very least, it's symptomatic of humans rapidly growing remoteness from The Machine that controls everything.

Alternatively, if it was a hack, it makes sense to target those updates as your way in. It's been done before with Oracle.

Either way, it's a concern, especially with digital money being enforced upon everybody in the near future. In the Westpac outage, customers were logging in to find their accounts had disappeared. Imagine that but for longer - or even permanent.

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War in Taiwan 2023 (General)