CWB sounds quake alert for SW Taiwan (General)
This is interesting - as close as i've seen to state-announced earthquake prediction
(Taiwan News) — The effort to monitor fault activities in Taiwan will be centered on the central-southern region of western Taiwan, an official of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said, as experts caution about unreleased seismic energy in the west.
Chen Kuo-chang (陳國昌), director of the CWB Seismological Center, said on Tuesday (Sept. 20) that the region of Chiayi and Tainan is strewn with many fault lines. Around ten fault lines are located in densely-populated areas while four are “of particular concern,”.
The official would not disclose details of the faults requiring vigorous monitoring to avoid sending the public into a panic.
That's exactly the conundrum we talked about. The balance between accuracy & causing panic.
The view was echoed by Wang Chung-ho (汪中和), a fellow researcher at Academia Sinica’s Institute of Earth Sciences, who voiced concern about relatively fewer quakes in western Taiwan.
According to Wang, the number of quakes being felt has seen a remarkable decrease since September of 2018, and the build-up of energy can be alarming. The likelihood of seismic hazards has been raised in the western region due to energy that has failed to be unleashed, he cautioned.
The researcher also pointed out an unusual phenomenon that he believes may be a precursor to a large earthquake, wrote the Environmental Information Center. The drop in groundwater levels in Taitung was detected in June this year, while similar signs were recorded in Changhua, Yunlin, and Nantou prior to the devastating Jiji quake that hit central Taiwan on Sept. 21 of 1999.
That's Taiwan's two top experts warning of a potential big-one coming for central-south west Taiwan.
It's not entirely clear if they've already observed a drop in water-levels in the central-south west - did he point it out as something to watch for ... or something that has already happened ...?
That it's been narrowed down to four fault-lines is noteworthy - quite specific.
The map gives an idea of where it's expected. Looks like Chiayi area again. That's where the big 7+'s are possible.