Khanan (General)

by dan, Monday, July 31, 2023, 20:03 (271 days ago) @ dan

Well well well. It appears that Khanan is becoming a bit unpredictable and all bets are off. What a difference a few hours makes.

The JTWC sums it up:

JTWC FORECAST TRACKS HAVE REMAINED WITHIN A TIGHT, 50NM ENVELOPE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OKINAWA OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED INCONSISTENT RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CPA TIMING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY LARGE SPREAD (433NM SPREAD AT TAU 96 AND A 514NM SPREAD AT TAU 120) AND A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

So if I were living in Okinawa or any islands in that area, I'd be getting serious with preparations right now. Even northern Taiwan should take notice. This could stall or do a loop-de-loop, who knows.

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