October2025
Weather diary page
Oct 1, Northern Rivers: The dry run is starting to become weird. Especially as the forecasters were predicting a wet spring courtesy of the Indian Ocean dipole. Instead, the way it transitioned so suddenly from incessant rain, basically since Easter, to a complete dry-out at the start of Sep, is not something i've seen before. It's due, supposedly, to sudden warming in the stratosphere above Antarctica, causing a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM).
Oct 8, Guam: We're getting more sun the last few days but still plenty of rain. I've been watching how storms and typhoons often start forming right in our area. Currently there's Halong which is east of Japan but I believe formed near us, and closer to home we have as yet Unnamed 95W which was SE of us a couple days ago and has now moved NWW of us and formed up. This must be why Guam doesn't regularly get hit by typhoons. They don't often form far enough SE of us to hit, with Mawar (2023) being the most recent exception. Zoom.earth seems to identify potential systems days before other sites like JTWC.
Oct 8. NR: Cool, Dan has arrived at the genesis point of typhoons - which is way better than the other end. Be considerate on how you direct them. Pecans started releafing about a week ago - there's now a visible tinge of green. Scarlett honey-eaters have left. Less finches. Channel-billed cuckoos arrived arrived Oct 1-2. Tonight, frogs started croaking, which is weird, coz there hasn't been a drop of rain for over a month - do they know something? No rain is forecast - 30C thereabouts every day - no significant rain predicted.
Oct 14, Guam: Typical example of a system forming right in our front yard:
Oct 15, Guam: Formation is continuing. 96W according to JTWC. We're getting very heavy rain. I read somewhere long ago that Guam is on a permanent 24-hour typhoon notice, meaning a typhoon could hit within 24 hours. And yet, it only gets hit by a serious typhoon a couple times a decade.
