Typhoons 2024

This strikes me as a fairly active western Pacific weather pattern for this early in the season.

[image]

And keep in mind Beryl was the earliest Atlantic Cat 4 storm on record.

That's the full production-line look. Apart from Gaemi, there could be another one or even two in the pipeline looking at that sat image.

This forecast chart for Wed, July 24 shows that Taipei is in play for either a serious impact, or a glancing blow at least.

Wind speed is not massive at this stage, & travelling quite fast, which is good - we'll see what happens.
[image]

There's been some significant change in the last 24 hrs. Tracks now have it heading towards Ilan/Hualien border.
Sustained wind speed has jumped to 120kts (220km) with gusts up to 145! (270km). That's super-typhoon strength - bound to cause serious damage.

Strangely, there's no obvious high pressure ridge to the north that's pushing it west & nudging landfall to the south. Appears to be a wrap-around effect from a high-pressure to the east that's engulfing it. I hope Hualien doesn't cop it - they've had enough already.

JTWC says: CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST, WITH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

Best guide at this stage is CWB's track. They're pretty reliable at 24hrs.
North of the eye is always dangerous in a big one, so Taipei will get serious impact. Looks like it will crank up around 4-5pm.

[image]

You can see the high extending to the north of the typhoon - cutting off the pass - it's still a matter of how far it extends.

[image]

Tags:
Typhoons Gaemi

And it's only July.

The face of things to come?

[image]

There's a whole lotta precipitation feeding into this storm - luckily it's moving fairly fast but it's packing some oomph.

Nepartak was a July storm. Similar scenario - a few years without a big hit then it jumped straight out of the blocks in 2016.

Last minute duck south! Poor old Hualien is gonna cop another disaster. Ilan county will still get blasted, Taipei too, but not the full-brunt.

[image]

Appears to be going up Taroka Gorge. Seems typhoons will often look for 'entry points' once they get close to the coast, such as big rivers. That coast is bloody rugged, so Taroka Gorge is the path of least resistance. It becomes a kind of over-ride of the other steering mechanisms

I'm not sure if that's an actual thing, but i've seen it a bunch of times. If it is, how does it 'know'. The eye needs water to generate power, so it makes sense that way, but why does it want to do that? It's not an animal with a survival instinct - or is it?

EDIT: so much for that theory - it's continuing to track south - it's already gone past Hualien city & the eye still hasn't made landfall. Is there a potential loop coming?

cwb radar - check out the 3hr track - it's quite erratic - not predicted by anyone.

While it's making its mind up, it's exposing Hualien county/Ilan county to an extended pounding. Up to 500 mm already in those counties - there's a few hours more of 'extremely torrential' rain still to endure.

[image]

And this more southern path will presumably slow it down a bit.

The multi-track shows how every agency got it wrong. JTWC still has it heading to Taipei. If you're 200km out within a few hours of posting your track, that's a serious miscalculation.

[image]

Alternative theory: China has perfected typhoon control technology & is decimating the Hualien military bases in preparation for an invasion

Yep, I'd say this is pretty much a direct hit. SW Taiwan is going to get inundated with rain for the next 48 hours.

[image]

EDIT: SW Taiwan that is, Kaohsiung, Pingtung.

Well, i right about the loop. In the end, it went through Ilan, where it was supposed to go, but wrong-footed everyone along the way. Would have been a torrid night for anyone between Hulaien & Ilan.

Pingtng always cops it somehow. Up to 1000mm in some places. Ilan was the worst.

Dulan barely got 20mm. If you're south of the eye on the east coast, it's amazing how little effect there can be. There was some fen fong (foehn wind) though.

[image]

Flood footage. As it's so mountainous, & the drainage system is good, you don't see a lot of flooding in Taiwan, even in typhoons. But Gaemi managed it. That loop succeeded in dragging out exposure to the worst of it for the south west especially.

https://youtu.be/QoSSeONyFho

Kaohsiung and Pingtung flood, but it takes a lot of rain. That footage looks like a newish area of Kaohsiung, maybe New Zuoying somewhere. All the rain from the mountains is dumping into that area.

I had to abandon my car in a Kaohsiung flood once, near Chengching Lake, an area known for flooding. I was one of those idiots who tried to drive through the high water, and I made it! Until the car crapped out that is. At least I made it through the intersection. Wading waste deep in urban floodwater is a bit unsettling given all the literal shit you know you're wading through.

I'm posting additional videos I find in this folder

Shanshan has been defying predictions for the last couple days. It has now almost stalled just south of the Japan main island, allowing it to increase in strength. I heard on the news this morning that this may be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan in a very long time.

[image]

Predictions and forecasts for Shanshan are falling like flies. A day ago every model had Shanshan running straight up Japan. Now, all models disintegrate after 48 hours out or so. This may be one for the books.

[image]

I don't think we've seen anything like this in E. Asia in quite a long time. This is a Morakot type event. Apparently there is no strong steering system with competing high pressure fronts to the east and west so it's just floundering.

[image]

That behaviour is the recipe for disaster alright. How much rain has fallen do you know?

Turned out to be less destructive than I thought it might be. It dissipated early on. Still, I think some areas got close to 1,000mm over the course of 3-4 days. We're still getting sporadic heavy showers.

This is a very decent-sized typhoon that's going to impact around the northern tip of Hainan, then head into Vietnam.

Not a lot of typhoons make it past Philippines without significant degradation, but Yagi (which just clipped northern ppe) has regained full-strength & looks set to make landfall as a super-typhoon. Places that are not often hit can be more prone to destruction by virtue of not being so battle-hardened. I'd have serious concerns for any communities in Yagi's path.

[image]

RSS Feed of thread

Formosahut forum

Typhoons 2024 (Weather)

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi

Typhoons Gaemi - video

Typhoons Gaemi - video

Typhoons Gaemi - video

Typhoon Shanshan

Typhoon Shanshan

Typhoon Shanshan

Typhoon Shanshan

Typhoon Shanshan

Typhoon Yagi