War in Taiwan 2024 - Formosahut forum

Let's say China does invade, overwhelms Taiwan's military, holds the island, or most of it.

Then what? Coalition forces bomb Taiwan - try to retake it?

Or do they bomb targets in China, as well?

Both parties would likely prefer to keep it contained - along the lines of the Ukraine War - so bombing China is a big step - invites retaliation. That's your WW3 scenario.

Though even if it's limited to Taiwan, the economic fallout would be colossal. Controlling chip production alone would be crippling.

That might be the war game CCP plays - prep-up with steel, essentials, launch a contained war on Taiwan (that doesn't damage the chip factories) - sink everyone else by shutting down the supply chain. See who blinks first.

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war in taiwan

Both parties would likely prefer to keep it contained - along the lines of the Ukraine War - so bombing China is a big step - invites retaliation. That's your WW3 scenario.

Yes, and maybe contained to outlying islands or some skirmish in the S. China Sea, perhaps involving the Philippines. It might even use a Philippine conflict as a proxy play war.

Though even if it's limited to Taiwan, the economic fallout would be colossal. Controlling chip production alone would be crippling.

That might be the war game CCP plays - prep-up with steel, essentials, launch a contained war on Taiwan (that doesn't damage the chip factories) - sink everyone else by shutting down the supply chain. See who blinks first.

But there's another series of scenarios here, and that is one in which both China and the US benefit from a controlled conflict. And this could take any number of forms, such as one involving the Philippines or contested islands.

Here's the thing. China's economy is tanking. The US has printed so much currency it's laughable. None of this can go on much longer. But if they have a controlled conflict, both countries have an excuse to reign in or otherwise overhaul their economies and currencies. You can imagine how a skirmish in the South China Sea, perhaps including something happening on one of Taiwan's islands, or that of the Philippines, when combined with a cyberattack on some critical infrastructure and, of course, some major development in the war in the Middle East could propel economies into major changes.

My point is that Chinese and US banking infrastructure could benefit from a limited war, one that doesn't destroy chip infrastructure or even drive Taiwan closer to reunification. All it has to do is help the Man strengthen his control and make people fall in line.

The Man is in China and the US. They're partners. They'll have play wars. Real wars would use nukes, right? Isn't that what war is? Kill everybody on the other side until they relent? Men, women, children, dogs, cats, babies, kill them all. Isn't that what the US did in WWII?

So, the US and China won't do that. They'll do something that benefits each side. It will be something shocking but, I'm guessing, not terribly devastating, well, aside from the thousands of lives of peasants that will be lost.

And it will be combined with other events to convince those peasants who were spared to do what the Man says, and thank him for helping them out.

And there will be parades and maybe new public holidays.

My point is that Chinese and US banking infrastructure could benefit from a limited war, one that doesn't destroy chip infrastructure or even drive Taiwan closer to reunification. All it has to do is help the Man strengthen his control and make people fall in line.

That's the key point that i can't escape - there's too much to lose on either side for a full-scale war.

The Man is in China and the US. They're partners. ... They'll do something that benefits each side. It will be something shocking but, I'm guessing, not terribly devastating, well, aside from the thousands of lives of peasants that will be lost.

Yep, they have far more in common with each other in terms of 'crowd control' than they do with the 'crowd'. They don't give a shit about some peasants dying, so long as it's happening on TV in some quarantined theatre.

And it will be combined with other events to convince those peasants who were spared to do what the Man says, and thank him for helping them out.

And there will be parades and maybe new public holidays.

Haha!

Today people in Taiwan received an English emergency text warning of a 'missile flyover' from China towards Taiwan - though in fact it was mis-translation of 'satellite launch'. Bet that got a few foreigner hearts pumping.

With all the people in Taiwan who speak great English, you'd think one of them would get the job of translating emergency attack messages.

Taiwan's election is between a Lie, a Cur, & a Ho.

I'm actually hoping Ke Wen-je does well, just to shake up the duopoly. He gets attacked for his China position, but it seems not too bad - he's vowed to continue Tsai Ing-wen's autonomy policy but to try & take some heat out of the relationship with China. Sounds sensible enough.

I noticed Ma Ing-jiu has weighed in saying Taiwan needs to "trust Xi Jin-ping" - but even the KMT candidate has distanced himself from that. The days of anyone talking up reunification appear to be dead & buried.

On a somewhat related note, I watched a good program about ties between China and Russia today. There was nothing really new in it for me, but it was refreshing to see a more in-depth look at the evolving relationship and what it means for the world and Taiwan, rather than the usual sound bites.

Looks like a comfortable win to Lai Ching-de. He seems pretty smart, has experience as VP.

CCP is pissed though.

Ch ambassador to Aus: If Australia is tied to the chariot of Taiwan separatist forces (Lai government), the Australian people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.

At least we know wolf diplomacy is not dead. Imagine if the Aus ambassador said: If China is tied to the chariot of Totalitarian forces, the Chinese people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.

Will watch the video tonight, but possibly related to that Russia-China collusion, i see the US has been dragged into (or gotten itself into) fighting with the Houthis - who seem to be waging a proxy front for Iran. We talked about a possible plan to light fires in order to stretch US forces, this might be Stage 2 of that.

At least we know wolf diplomacy is not dead. Imagine if the Aus ambassador said: If China is tied to the chariot of Totalitarian forces, the Chinese people would be pushed over the edge of an abyss.

Good point!

It sounds like the ambassador has been taking lessons from Kim Jong Un.

I just had a great idea for toy line. Create dolls of all these idiots with a string in the back. One of those dolls where you pull the string out and it says something in a squeaky voice. They can be loaded with their most outlandish quotes.

Of course, it would be hard to bring that idea to fruition because they probably only make such dolls in China now!

I just had a great idea for toy line. Create dolls of all these idiots with a string in the back. One of those dolls where you pull the string out and it says something in a squeaky voice. They can be loaded with their most outlandish quotes.

Brilliant idea! They would make great election merchandise. You could clean up with the US election this year.

I wanna put in a pre-order for a Dan Andrews doll.

Taiwan's election is between a Lie, a Cur, & a Ho.

I'm actually hoping Ke Wen-je does well, just to shake up the duopoly. He gets attacked for his China position, but it seems not too bad - he's vowed to continue Tsai Ing-wen's autonomy policy but to try & take some heat out of the relationship with China. Sounds sensible enough.

According to this live feed at 8:20PM on election day Japan time, Ke has over 25% of the vote, which is astonishing. Taiwan is clearly a multi-party democracy now, which is great. I wish I could say the same for the US.

I noticed that live feed has ocean surf as the audio track. Well done.

Taiwan News — Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss reportedly lobbied her government to allow the sale of military equipment to China three months after she was paid nearly NT$3.6 million to visit Taiwan.

Politico reported on Tuesday (Jan. 16) that documents show Truss secretly lobbied a top U.K. trade official to allow a business selling landmine disposal equipment to export to China. Experts said the equipment could be used by China in an invasion of Taiwan.

This is what Taiwan is up against. Greedy skullduggery by world influencers. If the report is true, it's stark evidence of what Dan said about the MAN - it transcends the staged political theatre - it's everywhere.

This quote stood out:

Paul Huang (黃柏彰), a research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, told Taiwan News that Truss’s visit to Taiwan highlights the “extreme wishful thinking and incompetence” of the foreign ministry and the Prospect Foundation, the latter of which invited Truss to Taiwan.

Some Taiwanese no doubt have an overly idealistic and simple view of the intentions and priorities of some western countries. Many actually believe Trump cares about them and will have their back if reelected, for example. Trump couldn't even find Taiwan on a map.

Some Taiwanese no doubt have an overly idealistic and simple view of the intentions and priorities of some western countries. Many actually believe Trump cares about them and will have their back if reelected, for example. Trump couldn't even find Taiwan on a map.

My concern is he would see Taiwan as a bargaining chip - to be traded away in 'the art of the deal'. At least Biden made some semi-doddering remarks about militarily defending Taiwan (which his team tried to walk-back), but I haven't heard anything from Trump on that score.

This is rhetoric from the CCP about the prospect of a Trump victory, but it makes some sense. Actually, we've made similar points before.

Taiwan News: TAO (CCP's Taiwan Affairs Office) spokesperson Chen Binhua (陳斌華) said that the U.S. will always pursue an "America First" policy and "Taiwan will change from a 'pawn' to an 'abandoned pawn' at any time.

Taiwan does control the world so far as computers go - it's a bit more than a pawn. A chip-in-the-game would be a better analogy - a big one. So Trump would want a lot for it - but if he saw it to his personal advantage, my feeling is he would Make-the-Deal.

During an interview with Fox News on July 16, 2023, anchor Maria Bartiromo asked Trump whether the U.S. should defend Taiwan if China invades. Trump said he did not want to reveal his thoughts on the matter because it would "put me in a very bad negotiating position."

He then alleged, "Taiwan did take all of our chip business."

Taiwan News: TAO (CCP's Taiwan Affairs Office) spokesperson Chen Binhua (陳斌華) said that the U.S. will always pursue an "America First" policy and "Taiwan will change from a 'pawn' to an 'abandoned pawn' at any time.

This is one instance in which I agree entirely with the CCP! The US has a long history of abandoning supposed allies.

My take is that a Biden win will result in a more level-headed, strategically based approach to benefit the military-industrial machine of the US, while a Trump win will result in a cluster fuck of instability based on his own warped, paranoid perception of how he can best survive and increase his own wealth. And stay out of jail.

Taiwan does control the world so far as computers go - it's a bit more than a pawn. A chip-in-the-game would be a better analogy - a big one. So Trump would want a lot for it - but if he saw it to his personal advantage, my feeling is he would Make-the-Deal.

He'll make any deal to save his own neck. He'd probably throw his own family under the bus if he thought it would save his neck.

Things seem to be heating up quite rapidly in the last few days. Here's a snapshot. Am I missing anything?

Feb 15: On Feb. 15, two Chinese fishermen drowned about one nautical mile off the archipelago after being chased by Taiwan's coast guard. The incident occurred after the fishermen entered prohibited waters in the area and attempted to flee. http://url.site25.net/86

Feb 17: Zhu also stated that there are no prohibited or restricted waters surrounding the Kinmen Islands. (Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office). http://url.site25.net/87

Feb 18: China announced on Sunday that its coast guard would begin regular patrols and set up law enforcement activity around the Kinmen islands, following the death of two Chinese nationals fleeing Taiwan's coast guard having entered into restricted waters too close to Kinmen. http://url.cailab.net/cl

Feb 19: Six Chinese coast guard officers on Monday boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat carrying 11 crew and 23 passengers to check its route plan, certificate and crew licences, leaving around half an hour later, Taiwan's coast guard said. http://url.cailab.net/cl

Feb 20: Taiwan drives away Chinese coast guard boat as frontline island tensions rise. http://url.cailab.net/cl

Feb 23: Chinese delegation in Taiwan's Kinmen for talks related to fatal speedboat incident. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5101437

The statement by Zhu on Feb 17 seems to be the most ominous. I can imagine how they could start extending this to the other outlying islands, the Penghu, etc.

The Feb 19 boarding is also worrying. I can see this tactic being increased. At what point could it include container ships? Ships thought to be carrying weapons?

Feb 19: Six Chinese coast guard officers on Monday boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat carrying 11 crew and 23 passengers to check its route plan, certificate and crew licences, leaving around half an hour later, Taiwan's coast guard said. http://url.cailab.net/cl

This is a classic micro-aggression that the CCP loves to do - incrementally increase pressure in order to gradually move the line without the wider public being fully-aware that it's being moved. Each incident doesn't seem like much, but when you accumulate them over years, it adds up. The goal is to slowly normalize their envelopment.

As for the speedboat incident, you can see the CCP is itching for any possible trigger to justify more noose-tightening.

Although Taiwanese politics on a local level can be quite luan-chi-ba-zao - some guy was hospitalized in a parliamentary brawl a few days ago - at the top level, they do produce some very astute operators. Lai seems to be of that ilk.

It's precarious work - being leader of a (small) country at the epicentre of a potential world war between super powers. No good being a hot-head. Gotta choose your words carefully - stand your ground without going over the top.

Chen Shui-bien had the 'One China on either side of the strait' - Tsai had her 'We won't be declaring independence coz we already are' line - Lai, a doctor, is following that prescription.

Lai: On this day in 1996, Taiwan's first democratically elected president took the oath of office, conveying to the international community that the Republic of China Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation in which sovereignty lies in the hands of the people.

It's a nifty move to quietly formalize Taiwan Independence Day as: May 20, 1996

Dan, you were probably in Taiwan then - i arrived shortly after, dodging missiles on the flight in.

As always, it's a matter of how far you can poke the bear. CCP will probably do something annoying as a reaction. They do hate Lai coz he was a known independence advocate in his earlier days, though his tone is quite measured now.

Yes, he seems to be off to a good start. Something tells me he's going to need every ounce of his smarts and diplomatic skills over his term(s).

I think we may have been on Guam when those in May of 96... that's about the time we moved there. I guess I could always check the old passport!

The first thing that came to mind when I saw this was a Trojan Horse! I wonder what the digital-economic-AI equivalent of that would be.

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Haha! That horse does look suspicious.

I see China has launched their inevitable response - military exercises surrounding the island for two days.

One factor that could lend weight to considerations of a near-future invasion is that some countries are (super belatedly) waking up to the fact that they're hopelessly dependent on China & exposed in terms of any conflict re supply of essential goods. Australia is a prime example. Finally there are some noises from the government, like they've just worked that reality out, & money is being thrown at certain industries (in this case the battery industry) to address it. It would still take 5-10 years probably, & it doesn't solve the problem of the shelves at major stores emptying overnight, but CCP may calculate that it's better to strike while they still have that capacity to cripple countries economically.

There's a lot of scenarios war-gamed involving military hardware, but not enough done focusing on what it will be like economically. If people can't buy cellphones, computers, & medicines (or any factory products, really), that's a weapon in itself. Even if you win the war, it doesn't solve it.

The US is far ahead of Australia (though still vulnerable), but there are many other countries that are in Australia's predicament. It's culpable stupidity & greed that it's been allowed to get to this point, but it has.

DW recently made a documentary about exactly that topic. I think this is it.

CCP put out a {pretty crappy) video simulating an attack on Taiwan. In the video, Taipei, Kaohsiung, & Hualien get blown off the map.

I still think it's all going to come down to fiat currency validity and health. The system is breaking down quite rapidly in the sense the it's starting to affect social order, and when social order breaks down, war happens.

There's this global interdependence of markets, as we've discussed with regards to trade, but it also plays into fiat and the USD as the reserve currency. That currency hegemony is getting attacked and it will eventually be toppled. It might take 500 years, or five. But it's inevitable as history shows.

But beyond all that is that the global monetary system is absolutely fucked. How long can countries print money and expect that money to be taken seriously?

When it costs 100x to buy a loaf of bread, what happens?

But beyond all that is that the global monetary system is absolutely fucked. How long can countries print money and expect that money to be taken seriously?

Guess we're about to find out ...

I watched (most of) the DW video. It's been as plain as day for nearly 30 years that allowing yourself to become reliant on a totalitarian regime was/is an idiotic strategy. Someone talks about it being a 'different attitude' back then (getting into bed with CCP), which is a normal way to shirk all responsibility. Why was it a different attitude? Attitude by whom?

It's interesting the video was made during the initial years of 'Corona'. Covid marked an unceremonious pivot-away point (by the US) from the pivot to China. Nothing changed apart from that - China was persecuting HK, Tibetan, Uyghur, Falun Gong people & threatening Taiwan before Covid - it had just been profitable not to talk about it.

There's a tacit understanding now by govts that it did come from the Wuhan lab, but it's best not to talk about it, seeing how we dutifully helped cover it up. Only question is was it deliberately released with a goal in mind? It definitely works as a weapon. Worked great.

The total back-flip towards China, suggests some intel indicating it was deliberate. Otherwise why backflip?

On the medicine reliance scandal, there are still shortages in Aus on crucial drugs, including antibiotics.

9 News: There are currently 424 medicines listed on the Therapeutic Goods Administration's (TGA) medicine shortage database, at least 20 of those are at critically low levels.

Unlike the DW story, there's no questioning, whatsoever, by 9 News of the shortage being caused by becoming utterly reliant on China.

There's a tacit understanding now by govts that it did come from the Wuhan lab, but it's best not to talk about it, seeing how we dutifully helped cover it up. Only question is was it deliberately released with a goal in mind? It definitely works as a weapon. Worked great.

The total back-flip towards China, suggests some intel indicating it was deliberate. Otherwise why backflip?

Interesting point. I wonder if that has anything to do with this recent development:

US government suspends funding for virus research group at center of Covid-19 origin controversy

The US Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday suspended funding to EcoHealth Alliance, a virus research organization tied to controversy about the origins of the virus that causes Covid-19. The agency also proposed the group be blocked from receiving federal funds in the future, possibly for years.

You can see the strategy - it's a tried & true one: deny, cover-up, vilify - then years later quietly defund one person (out of many) that contributed to the cause - & that's it.

No actual accountability for killing 15 mil (& counting), covering it up to protect the CCP, or causing massive world-wide impacts - from which all the lead actors profited big-time.

Daszak was always going to be the 'scapegoat' (even though there are no real consequences) coz he's such a baffoon. But how about WHO, which appointed him as their lead investigator to claim that a lab-exit was 'extremely unlikely'? It's an obvious lie - where's their punishment?

Or the Proximal Origin authors (Holmes, Andersen, Lipkin, Rambaut, Garry) with their ridiculous 'pangolin paper'? All of whom were rewarded with massive funding boosts for spreading their disinformation.

Or Fauci, Collins & Farrar who masterminded the cover-up? Farrar is now WHO's chief scientist spearheading the frightening push by WHO to gain even more global power.

Given the result, if i'm the CCP or one of their associated western scientists, i'm busily working on engineering the next 'Disease X' - coz it's just so profitable/empowering - & nothing happens to you.

China seeks detention of foreigners in disputed South China Sea | South China Sea News | Al Jazeera

I think we discussed the eventuality of this in a different thread, maybe this one.

It's a move towards a slow, gradual embargo. All they have to do is detain ships, people, flights, etc., with even the flimsiest of legal framework, and it could be done a little at a time, as the above story suggests.

When does exceptional become normal? At one point does that happen? So they might detain a fishing boat, then a ferry or plane (i.e., because there's a terrorist on board).

They've already started taking seizing food airdropped for Philippine forces.

So, what's the order here? First food, then maybe boats and the people on them, then perhaps some shipping vessel, then a plane? And then exceptional becomes normal?

Like building islands.

Smart, I give them that. And it will work because they can always throw the US off balance. Just as the British are way better than Americans at, well, English, but particularly humor and wit, Chinese are way better at political and military taichi.

So, what's the order here? First food, then maybe boats and the people on them, then perhaps some shipping vessel, then a plane? And then exceptional becomes normal?

Like building islands.

And taking economic control of whole countries, such as Australia. Or capturing the world's academic community & global bodies as we saw with Covid. This strategy of incrementalization has been decades in the making, dating back to Deng Xiao-ping & the implementation of the United Front Work Dept. It's worked brilliantly - they're not gonna deviate from that course - the gradual accumulation of control.

Somewhere in that continuum, some undefined, unheralded moment, the balance of power shifts. It's not impossible to reverse it, but it's very hard, & requires a will-power that is non-existent amongst government & industry actors.

In the Australia example, not only has the CCP taken effective control, but those who ceded it have become addicted to this arrangement/money to the point that they will actively fight to protect it, even when an overwhelming number of their own countrymen are strongly against it. This surrender of sovereignty (to all intents & purposes) was justified by the oxymoron of 'economic rationalism' - the same argument used to resist doing anything about resolving the problem.

Ultimately, this death by a thousand cuts is a good argument for being proactive about Taiwan - go ahead & recognize it as a country, which it is. Do something to upset this apple-cart of subsumption. What's the worst that could happen? China launches an attack? If the plan is to gradually strangle Taiwan into submission anyway, would it not be better to throw a spanner into their works? Get them involved on a battlefield they didn't want to be on. The best outcome is if you call their bluff, they may actually back down.

Unfortunately, that's all pie-in-the-sky coz of the above dependence that has already accumulated.

Are EV's the new cell-phone? They're equipped with all the tracking technology. Their production (including Tesla) is dominated by China. It's another one of those 'soft-bang' scenarios where we get gradually swamped before you fully realize what's happening.

I'm not against EV's philosophically, but again, due to the oil industry's self-interested resistance to them, China has filled the void. They already control medicine, phones/computers, electronics - now cars are the next take-over target. The US does seem to be waking up to this, but there are still a lot of countries with their heads buried firmly in the sand.

I've been wondering about this as well, not just about EVs but 'new' cars in general which are loaded with all sorts of unnecessary tech.

On top of that, we have tracking and surveillance devices invading our homes. The old discussion about body implants and such is just that, old and outdated. They're achieving the same ends with the crap we voluntarily buy and put in our homes and pockets.

Thinking about the Philippines escalations you raised, could it be that Xi is thinking to take a section of PPE as his first move? Strategically, it would make sense - make Taiwan easier to hold if you already have a base in northern PPE.

Here's some more diu-lien (face-losing) Aus behaviour:

Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to better communication between the countries after meetings in Canberra this week.
Li departed Australia as videos and photos of clashes between Chinese coastguard personnel and navy personnel from the Philippines during a confrontation in the South China Sea were released.
The Philippines said Monday's interception by Chinese vessels left two of its ships damaged and sailors injured, including one who lost a thumb

Classic 'fuck you' going out the door that CCP always marks their meetings with Aus leaders - it's almost funny - promising better military communications as you blindside them on military escalation.

The Australian government (whoever that is) said it was gravely concerned by the Chinese actions.
"This is an escalation in a pattern of deeply concerning and destabilising behaviour by China."

They got that right, so they can't plead ignorance. It's another way of putting Dan's accumulation continuum. Which explains a lot of things in life, actually, not only China's strategy.

"This conduct endangers peace and security in the region, threatens lives and livelihoods, and creates risks of miscalculation and escalation."

Right, so why are we dangerously reliant on a country that does that?

The use of drones in a Taiwan Strait conflict has been in the news a quite a bit over the last few months. Here's a take on underwater drones.

EDIT: Posting some relevant links to http://formosahut.com/bookmarks/.

Seems likely that any conflict will be very much a robot war ... fought over supply chain routes.

Apart from air & sea drones, you've probably seen China's robot dogs. It's not hard to imagine driverless subs delivering platoons of robot dogs to do the bulk of front-line fighting.

The other thing about robots is that it also expands the grey-zone. If you sink a manned-ship or shoot down a plane then that would cause a 'normal' war, but if you shoot up some drones, it probably won't. It provides more of that 'gradual escalation space' that we talked about before. Like cyber-war, there are no defined rules of engagement.

The excuse often thrown around in Aus for becoming economically dependent on China is 'we can't compete with their cheap labor'. Although that may have been partially true (though you could still apply tariffs & subsidies to balance it up, if you wanted to), it's becoming irrelevant now as the photo below shows.

The modern factories in China do not run on sweat-shop labor - instead they are world leading in terms of robo-assembly.

This is one of those things (like drones, all things AI) that's not a passing fad, it's only going to get bigger. Either get with it in the manufacturing sector, or get left behind.

[image]

This image makes it clear what the strategy is - control the trade route in the East China Sea. In an economic war, control of the seas is more important than control of the land. CCP has managed to invade a large chunk of it without firing a shot - very Sun Tzu.

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Trump suggests Taiwan pay for US protection

Some comments from the article suggest a much greater likelihood of a Chinese invasion if Trump wins:

Trump said the U.S. has been Taiwan’s insurance policy for years and was unsure if it made sense to defend Taiwan when China wants it so badly.

Later in the article, Trump appears lukewarm on protecting Taiwan from Chinese invasion...

Trump said his skepticism stems from the practical difficulty of defending a country halfway around the world and a desire to coax Taiwan to pay protection fees to the United States.

In the article, Trump expressed anger, claiming that Taiwan had stolen the global chip business and profited handsomely, with the U.S. merely serving as an insurance policy against a Chinese invasion. Given these circumstances, he suggested the U.S. should reconsider its Taiwan position.

Link to Bloomberg summary

Link to full article on Bloomberg

The idea that the US can some how withdraw from world politics is just silly. What's the plan there - let totalitarianism take over the rest of the world & pull up the draw-bridge? How's that gonna work with trade & supply chain routes?

I see there's been a huge drop on the Taiwan stock-market - 2nd biggest one day fall ever, apparently. Makes me wonder if somebody knows something. Or maybe it's a reaction to Trump's comments & investor's are getting out before he (potentially) gets in.

We mentioned 'the noise' around an impending (cyber) event earlier - seems clear now what that event is - Iran in direct war against Israel/US (which will involve cyber-warfare). There was the insider trading stock sell-off, Aus announced it's 'terrorist' threat level had been raised to 'probable'...

Which opens up another potentially irresistible window for CCP to invade Taiwan. They'd have their own schedule, so wouldn't be too swayed by opportunistic moments, but the escalation of the Middle East War, may well have been a part of that plan.

We mentioned 'the noise' around an impending (cyber) event earlier - seems clear now what that event is - Iran in direct war against Israel/US (which will involve cyber-warfare). There was the insider trading stock sell-off, Aus announced it's 'terrorist' threat level had been raised to 'probable'...

All signs that something is amiss, or rather that the house of cards is shaking. Here we are, international corporate, financial, political leaders deciding the fate of the world behind the scenes, making sure that when the shit hits the fan, it won't fall on them. But it will hit on the rest of us.

And we have the US election coming up. Russia and China will do everything they can to pit American against American, and most Americans will fall for it, focusing on how much they hate their neighbors rather than trying to figure out who is really screwing them.

Which opens up another potentially irresistible window for CCP to invade Taiwan. They'd have their own schedule, so wouldn't be too swayed by opportunistic moments, but the escalation of the Middle East War, may well have been a part of that plan.

I find it stunning that so many people think China won't make any moves on Taiwan. They already are! The daily air and sea incursions -- do people think that's just for training? And it won't necessarily be a military attack. With AI working social networks and financial coercion alone, I bet China could take over Taiwan within a generation.

But they may not want to wait that long.

Here's a somewhat troubling report from NKH regarding how the Israelis are using AI in war.

One red line in AI warfare I've come across is that we're in trouble when there is not a human making the final decision on when to kill another human. This report quite explicitly states that that red line has already been crossed. A human is still pushing the button (or not pushing the ABORT button I imagine), but according to one of the people interviewed, those using the AI have no time to analyze the data the AI has digested to determine if the action they (actually the AI) are taking is appropriate, so they just follow the AI findings without question.

So they're doing what the AI tells them to do. So the AI is making the decisions on when someone should die, and all the people within a certain radius.

One red line in AI warfare I've come across is that we're in trouble when there is not a human making the final decision on when to kill another human.

You can see where all this is heading - humans, with their mortality, are getting swamped by AI ORGs, which don't die. We are literally living in the last days of humanity's reign on earth as the supreme being.

I think the thing that's lost on a lot of people ushering in this baton-change is that AI could/almost certainly will turn on it's handlers at some point - & there won't be a thing they can do about it.

You can see where all this is heading - humans, with their mortality, are getting swamped by AI ORGs, which don't die. We are literally living in the last days of humanity's reign on earth as the supreme being.

Here's an interesting talk given by Stephen Fry that touches on that. He presents some good observations and questions that, though perhaps not entirely new, do shine a new light on the state of things.

I think the thing that's lost on a lot of people ushering in this baton-change is that AI could/almost certainly will turn on it's handlers at some point - & there won't be a thing they can do about it.

I think we've already crossed that point not because AI has us over a barrel and the situation is hopeless, but rather because we're in an AI arms race, both figuratively and literally. The human condition is such that we can't even, as a species, agree on how to address problems that WILL eventually destroy us, i.e. climate change, nuclear weapons, dependence on consumerism, dependence on production, the failing international monetary system, etc. It's the combination of AI and greed that will do us in. If the greed and power structure weren't there, AI would be a great thing.

Imagine, for a moment, if somehow as a species we managed to evolve so that as individuals we spent our day concerned more with others' well being than our own. Imagine if we found comfort in knowing those around us were OK, and in fact that was our main source of comfort, even happiness.

I think that's possible, and I think that's the only thing that will save us from this, that type of evolution. It's not something that can be legislated; in fact, if we were to reach that level of development, we wouldn't need any governments, or nations. Governments and nations serve to protect and preserve the wealth of the wealthy and powerful, and that's it. It's always been that way. There's no other reason for them in spite of what we're told. If all the governments ceased to exist tomorrow, along with all the weapons, we might just realize how much we're all alike.

Governments started with what? Kings and Queens! Right? Rulers who wanted to control their subjects. Nothing has changed.

But if we are able to reach that level of development where we live first for others and maintain our own health so that we can serve others, this could truly be a wonderful little planet, heaven on earth. It's possible.

In the meantime, back to reality. AI is going to present problems because it's being used by a species that is technologically advanced but is still focused on self, and that's a tough one.

Here's an observation. I don't write code (well, I write damn good html and css, but purists wouldn't consider that code), but I can read and understand some of it.

AI can now write code really well, and that ability, or function rather (the word 'ability' in this case is anthropomorphic), raises real questions I don't think are being discussed widely. I know it can write perfect HTML and CSS, and as far as I can tell pretty darn good javascript, php, and python. And this all happened very quickly and it's developing very quickly. And it will have many effects.

AI will be writing algorithms that make second-by-second decisions (another anthropomorphism) about how we're treated as individuals in all aspects of our life. We've seen how it's taking over warfare.

But my thought is this -- won't it just write it's own coding language? Isn't that perhaps already happened? Maybe it has. I've never looked into it.

But once AI starts creating it's own code, literally, from the ground floor up, from a new language, surely multiple coding languages, that it creates and no human knows. Wow, then we're truly fucked.

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