Let's hope we get some rain from this one.

Looks like the East Coast is going to get something. In fact Fung-Wong might decide to make a slow turn and visit you for quite some time.

Has got the potential, at least. Slowing down as it approaches us, with a decent poleward outflow, and then a coldfront feeding in mositure at the same time. If it drifts a little further to the west then somehwere on Taiwan is going to get clobbered.

You're in for it. Fung-Wong is going to turn, stall, not be able to make up it's mind, then slowly, every so slowly, creep up the East Coast.

I'd start preparing.

Yeah, it's quite possible. Meanwhile CWB has Taidong at 0% pop for tonight. 0%. That's bizarre. There's a ligntning out to sea, there's stuff emerging on the radar - surely it couldn't be 0%. Even tomorrow they only have it at 30. The year before Nari there was a typhoon with a poleward outflow that crept up the coast - huge floods in taipei - considered the worst in 100 years - until nari came along the next year. This typhoon seems to be following a similar path.

On October 27, Typhoon Xangsane hit southern Luzon of the Philippines. It turned to the north over the South China Sea, and after strengthening to a 100 mph typhoon it hit Taiwan. Xangsane dissipated on the 1st, after causing 181 casualties, 83 of which were from the crash of Singapore Airlines Flight 006 on October 31, 2000.

Good morning Fung-Wong. You're predicted path took a turn in our direction overnight.

This might be interesting. I'd better go get a swim in today while I can. If this thing starts moving slowly once it starts turning, we could be in for a deluge.

Fung-Wong seems to be highly unpredictable.

B. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST, AND THROUGH NORTHERN LUZON, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE EAST. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE NORTH AS THE STR TO THE EAST REORIENTS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN LUZON AND THE EASTERN SPINE OF TAIWAN, THE
INTENSITY OF FUNG-WONG IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS DEPICT THREE
SCENARIOS. THE FIRST, AND LEAST LIKELY, SCENARIO HAS THE SYSTEM
STRAIGHT-RUNNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD REQUIRE THE RIDGE OVER
CHINA TO REBUILD AND EXTEND ACROSS TAIWAN INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA.
BASED ON A 181200Z 500MB ANALYSIS, THE RIDGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN
RETREATING, MAKING THIS SITUATION, FAVORED BY GFDN, VERY UNLIKELY.
THE NAVGEM, HWRF AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOW THE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAIWAN AND SLOWING DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN EAST CHINA SEA THROUGH TAU
72. THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS THE REBUILDING
AND REORIENTING STR TO THE EAST, WHICH WOULD BECOME ELONGATED NORTH
TO SOUTH. WHILE THE JENS, JGSM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR, THEY
CARRY TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 48 AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE STR, WHICH IS NOT PREDICTED TO EXTEND
AS FAR NORTH-SOUTH. ALL SOLUTIONS TAKE FUNG-WONG FARTHER WEST OF THE
RYUKYU ISLANDS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THIS TRIFURCATION
IN THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND TAU 48.

C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODELS DEPICT THREE SEPARATE SCENARIOS
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH THE WESTERN SCENARIO RUNNING THE SYSTEM
INTO CHINA, THE NORTHERN OFF THE COAST OF SHANGHAI AND THE FINAL
POSSIBILITY OF A RECURVE TAKING THE SYSTEM JUST SHORT OF THE KYUSHU
COAST. THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IS THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STR TO THE EAST. MODELS AGREE ON A SLIGHT
BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT JET FEATURE AROUND TAU 120. WITH REGARD TO
THE STR, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS 16W TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IN
CONTRAST, THE JAPANESE MODELS DEPICT FUNG-WONG TURNING AROUND A
WEAKER STR INTO THE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 96 AND STARTING TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL SCENARIOS,
SLOWING THE TRACK SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LATER TAUS.
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST UNDER THE WESTERLIES AND NORTH OF THE STR TO THE EAST. DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST

Yes, and there is also quite a discrepancy between jtwc and cwb with cwb having it's track much further east and still heading towards kenting and up the coast while jtwc is heading more towards your neck of the woods. When typhoons get close, i tend to go with the CWB track - they update more often for one thing.

just started raining here in earnest and i still think the signs are that this could be a massive rain event typhoon. coming up from the south, the whole system, including the brunt and the outflow (which is mostly equatorial)will work over wherever it hits.when a typhoon comes from side on, you just get one or the other, but this will be both barrels. if it stalls near here, which is a distinct possibility.then it could be catastrophic.

At this point it sure seems to be moving at a snail's pace. I agree that this looks like it could dump a lot of rain on us before it moves on, and given that it's forecast to make two turns at least, one of which it is in the process of making now, it seems that possibilities for stalling are good. Might even get some loop action going on.

It's just starting to roll in in Kaohsiung, though we haven't had any heavy rain or wind yet, just sprinkles and very, very humid, dense atmosphere. Kaohsiung City has a lot of flood prone neighborhoods, being a massive port city. If I lived in one, I'd be packing my bags and checking in to a hotel.

According to the CWB, Fung-Wong is going to be moving from its present position just off the southern tip of Taiwan to a position southwest of Dulan for the next 12 hours, moving at 20KM/hour. It's going to dump a lot of rain just in that time span, let alone on its exit.

CWB has on 'extremely torrential' rain warning (which is still better than 'very extremely torrential') but it hasn't really happened here yet, though judging by the radar it should ramp up soon. At the moment a gentle breeze coming down of the mountains from the west and intermittent showers.

Still a fairly large degree of separation between CWB and JTWC, the latter having it going directly through kaohsiung.

It's pretty small and it remains to be seen how much rain it's carrying, but it's an unusual direction for a typhoon to approach. In theory, with the rotation of the rain bands, it could be a bit of a reverse of fanapi and marokot with a lot of the rain ending up on the east coast, but like i said, nothing much yet. will be watching the rainfall to the south of us to see what it's packing.

only 35mm in the guage so far - just emptied it - and that's from yesterday and today. however, according to CWB there has been 42mm at Chihben in the last hour (the top in taiwan), so i guess it's coming.

no real wind to speak of yet.

rain has begun in earnest, though despite some torrential bursts, it's not sustained at that level - yet. Approx another 100 mm overnight in xc though they're getting more in the south and it's up to 50mm an hour down there. Places in east pindong are pushing 500mm over last two days, which is enough to cause landslides - and they're gonna go well past that.

wind is coming from the east but not really a factor at this point.

typhoon has made very slow progress overnight, which is the nightmare scenario. and appears to have strengthened to form a complete eyewall of rain. considering there's all that to get through, and then the tail as well, it's a case of hang onto your hats - and your houses.

ok, here we go. this really is the full nightmare scenario now. cwb has amended their track and now has it crawling right up the coast. apart from taking it closer to us, with half the typhoon still over water that would allow it to keep refueling. this could be a catastrophe for the east coast which doesn't usually get massive typhoon rainfall.

Whoa! Yep, time to start inflating that raft.

they are now getting 80mm an hour in the south!

Wind is picking up here quickly.

yeah, same here. and the rain.

JTWC seems to have seriously goofed on the track for this one. A look at the radar shows the eye over kenting but they still have it going up the west coast.

Yeah I agree. I'm sticking with the CWB from here on out. They're on top of it. The Japan weather service seems to be doing a good job of tracking. Notice the erratic route Fung-Wong has taken so far.

That's a good track. The eye on the radar is now clearly just off the coast from my house though it's clouded over. The rain did stop for a short while but it's starting up again now and the wind is light and fluctuating - guess it will start coming from the south soon.

I see one place in Taidong had 122mm in the last hour!

It's not as intense as that here but we're probably close to 200mm since last night.

wind has really cranked up again. Not off the charts but some big gusts and as strong as it's been. still coming from the east at this stage.

going out for a drive to check on my favourite hotel.

the eye passed right over us - blue skies a bit of sun, the whle bit.

rain has stopped and wind has switched to south west.

Cool! I've only seen a really good eye once, in Kaohsiung many years ago. Crystal clear, calm but unstable, sunny, very nice. I've seen poorly defined ones before, but that was the only time I saw a really well defined eye with a clear boundary.

i don't know if it was quite as good as that, coz it wasn't a big typhoon, but you could see the boundary of the typhoon around you, and there were patches of blue. anyway, it felt pretty special.

looks like it's pretty much finished here now - just some light rain in the back half - though 1000mm in the mountains - that should mean a good driftwood delivery.

I see JTWC finally corrected their mistake, but it took them a long, long time - a serious dropping of the ball there i would have thought.