Southern Front (Weather)

by dulan drift ⌂, Wednesday, June 04, 2014, 21:56 (3824 days ago)

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. The front has worked its way to the south of us and will slowly move back to the north tomorrow. Whereas normally we are protected from the mei yu fronts by the mountain ranges as they approach from the north west, this time we are more directly in the firing line.

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Southern Front

by dulan drift ⌂, Tuesday, June 10, 2014, 22:30 (3818 days ago) @ dulan drift

Hasn't brought the deluge i thought it might but that's probably because of a typhoon forming in the middle of it (!) and sucking a lot of the moisture into it as it drifts ne.
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Southern Front + typhoon

by dulan drift ⌂, Thursday, June 12, 2014, 15:07 (3816 days ago) @ dulan drift

Is this yet another typhoon forming within the front? Animation appears to show a slight circulation. If that gets going we can expect to cop torrential rain.

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Southern Front + typhoon

by dan, Saturday, June 14, 2014, 07:46 (3814 days ago) @ dulan drift

This system is developing and is tracking north slowly. This is positioned to give SW Taiwan (Kaohsiung-Pingtung especially) a major hit if it continues to develop.

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Southern Front + typhoon

by dan, Saturday, June 14, 2014, 18:42 (3814 days ago) @ dan

Hello Hagibis

It looks like Hagibis is going to be a fast and unpredictable runner.

B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
48 THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE STR. GFS, GFDN AND HWRF SHOW A STRONGER STR AND DEPICT A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO TAIWAN BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND. NAVGEM, ECMWF AND JGSM INDICATE A WEAKER
STR AND TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND.
ALL THESE MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS
COAMPS-TC WHICH TRACKS A 35- TO 45-KNOT SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD (INTO
THE STR) OVER WATER TOWARD TAIWAN. BASED ON UPPER-AIR DATA, THE JTWC
FORECAST FAVORS A NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK DUE TO POSITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 72.//

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