Low blow (Weather)

by dan, Friday, September 27, 2013, 12:45 (4074 days ago) @ dulan drift

I'm surprised this isn't showing up on any of the charts yet. It certainly looks threatening.

Wait, I just checked JTWC and they're calling it a low, with 'low' likelihood of developing into a storm. It's kind of funny, when they do that, identify and mark it as having 'low' possibilities, it actually means it has more possibility than it did a few hours ago.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 136.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 169 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR DEPICT FRESH DEEP CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
DEVELOPING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH SIGNIFICANTLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BASED ON THE POORLY DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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