Low blow

This is the forecast chart for a week ahead. A couple of lows lurking and appearing to converge in our genral vicinity.
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This doesn't seem to directly correspond to any low on the weather charts, but does look like a possible typhoon build-up.
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I'm surprised this isn't showing up on any of the charts yet. It certainly looks threatening.

Wait, I just checked JTWC and they're calling it a low, with 'low' likelihood of developing into a storm. It's kind of funny, when they do that, identify and mark it as having 'low' possibilities, it actually means it has more possibility than it did a few hours ago.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 136.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 169 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR DEPICT FRESH DEEP CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE
DEVELOPING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH SIGNIFICANTLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BASED ON THE POORLY DEFINED STRUCTURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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It looks like that system is getting an upgrade. Moving NNW.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 134.2E TO 14.8N 137.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 282300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.

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They are generally predicting it to go straight up though there does seem to be a high directly above it, which would make me think it wasn't a certainty. A couple do have it coming here.
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Looks like it might be a busy week. This is the forecast chart for next tues featuring another typhoon behind the current one, and then another low behind that!
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Well it has certainly been unstable lately. That bizarrely hot Monday then rainy nights. Things are in flux.

Seems to be a bit of a change happening in the forecasts with them moving further west. The red guy has stuck with that extreme westerly track for the last 24 hrs, in fact he's increased it, and now got it going under taiwan. Still depends on how quickly the high moves in.

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And this 'spaghetti' mess has a couple models sending it our way as well. And it just looks like it's going to affect us in some way.

Granted, most people would not seek out the oddball models that have the typhoon coming their way, but that's their loss.

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Woah! The JTWC track has taken a dramatic turn in our direction.

GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

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I guess we'll know fairly soon - if it's gonna turn then it will need to do in the next few hours.

Meanwhile the dong bei ji is almost at typhoon strength anyway!

The window has closed for it turning and coming to our neck of the woods but northern taiwan could still cop it. One of the models, the green one, has the full nightmare scenario for the north east - heading to the coast and then stalling. Apparently already raining in taipei, but bloody hot and sunny here - and no wind, which is actually nice for a change.

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weird track
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