Yes indeed, Usagi should be taken very seriously. There seems to be disagreement among the models at this point regarding how close it will come to us, but any of the models below spells trouble. The JTWC forecast is below as well.

3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 17W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AS THE REMNANTS OF
TS 16W MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO THE
NORTH OF TD 17W ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK ARE FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TUTT CELL WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING THE INTERACTION BEYOND TAU 48 AS TD 17W AND THE TUTT CELL
TRACK ON SEPARATE BEARINGS. MODERATELY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 17W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU
96, BUT SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 120, LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL
CAUSE A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
INDICATES A LARGE VARIATION IN THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION THE STR
WILL PLAY AS TD 17W APPROACHES TAIWAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE POOR
INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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