possible straight runner- soulik

there's a likely looking low forming due east of us that's forecast to make its way vaguely towards taiwan, though still almost a week away. missing out on the rain from the last one was kind of depressing so i am not getting my hopes up just yet.

This is the chart for next thurs.
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Latest chart is more interesting - has it heading further south and more towards us.

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Yea it looks like we may get something out of it. Sure hope so. There's a bigger system well east of us that looks too far north to hit us.

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There's a bigger system well east of us that looks too far north to hit us.

that system is the straight runner - it's still forecase to head due west.
but still hopeful we can pick up a shower or two tomorrow from the tropical wave to the south of us. We will see if there is anything in that contrail theory.

TD07W. The fact that so early in the game they are predicting it to come somewhat near us means it almost certainly won't.

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With that small system sitting off our east coast, it looks like we're going to get rain no matter where Soulik decides to go. I have a bad feeling about Soulik though. I'm actually sort of hoping it doesn't hit us. How weird is that?

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yeah, it's a bit sudden to be gearing up for a full scale typhoon by friday, but some rain would be nice.
however, seems to be a bit of a shift in consensus going on with the forecast model guys and they have it pretty much t-boing taiwan at this stage. JTWC is sticking with its northerly track though.

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seems that straightening out is becoming the consensus. might be time to start thinking about making some serious preparations.
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locked in on the north east coast now, around Fulong-Honeymoon Bay. Massive waves here as you would expect with a straight runner approaching taiwan from due east. CWB has Taidong at 40% chance of rain for tonight and only 50% for tomorrow ('mostly cloudy with occasional showers')- that would seem to be ridiculous when you look at the structure of the typhoon - lots of rain in the south and decent poleward outflow. Think we will get some very substantial rain as it passes through northern taiwan. [image]

Thanks for the update. Here in Zhiben the wind is just starting to really kick up, but the waves along the coast on the way down about 8am were enormous. I'm looking forward to the drive home.

Here's a recent shot:

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reports of big wind in taipei and heavy, not torrential rain. here it's just starting to get windy, but it's weirdly hot. much hotter than a normal summer night here, and that's saying something. kinda threatening to rain, but no big downpour so far. radar suggests it's a matter of time.

Kind of odd for me to be up at this hour, but then I went to bed at 8:30 so...

Wind is just starting to blow here. Glad I went to bed early as it looks like our metal roof will start getting very noisy soon. It was very strangely hot until just a couple hours ago. Well over 30 into the night, which is very unusual.

This is bizarre. It's 5:47 in the morning, and according to CWB it's 33.5. It actually feels hotter than that. What the heck is going on? I think we're in for some severe wind very soon. Notice it's cooler all around us. Hold on to your chairs, folks!

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they were saying it hit a max of 36 C on the news - at night - never experienced anything like it. I don't know if there's a world record for overnight temp, but that would have to be close.
Wind did come howling though around 3am and went for a bit over an hour but it was still bizarely hot. i'd just gone to bed around 1.30, drunkish, then got up again when the wind woke me. It was 'raining' rong shu berries on the roof like a hailstone lashing. (I swear that rong shu tree carries millions of berries - total survival overkill) I went out to the porch with a bad headache and had a cigarette in this furnace blast wind. Strange kind of semi-dream experience - like a sensory disconnect. Shouldn't this wind be cooler - where's the rain - why can't i breathe - did i really drink that much?

Checked the guage on Sat afternoon and there was only 13mil. So CWB did kind of know what they were talking about. Though we did get a decent downpour today as the remnants of the tail dragged across us.

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possible straight runner- soulik (Weather)