It looks like there's at least a 50-50 probability that this storm will affect us. The question remains whether it will be a straight shooter or will double back north, or take a more NW track, or be really indecisive and dilly dally west of the Philippines. Regardless, it's an interesting storm.

This may end up being one for the books for its unpredictability if nothing else.

Latest post-72 forecast from JTWC (emphasis added):
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING IN A COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR
LOBES. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A SECOND MONSOON SURGE
OCCURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUSION SUPPRESSES THE DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SPREAD AFTER THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CHINA SEA, AND DUE TO THE
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.