Nanmadol divergent tracks - Formosahut forum

This looks like a storm that's hard to call. I've recently been paying more attention to the Central Florida University for typhoons located at http://hurricane.methaz.org/, with special note of their page at http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/.

One thing that strikes me about their site is the extent to which forecast models differ. Check out the attached pics as an example. This is an exciting system, but aren't they all.

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typhoon

One thing that strikes me about their site is the extent to which forecast models differ.

Dong He just about splits the difference.

Looking at the chart, i guess they're differing on whether the front will weaken the high enough to let it go poleward. If not, the high is well positioned for it to end up here. Also, i am curious to see if the eastern one (Talas) goes straight up as predicted - the high would seem to be blocking it.

Anyway, surely there must be some rain somewhere in all of this for us - we've had virtually no rain this Aug when we usually get 300ml - maybe it's saving it all for the last couple of days.

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The models have it coming increasingly towards us, sweeping the east coast. We're getting wild, short gusts of wind coming out of the mountains here in Donghe. I thought they were going to blow our fire out last night.

Wish I could surf.

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Was planning on taking a load of furniture to sell in Taipei this weekend - looks like i might have to cancel that and start making a few preparations here. Still moving very slowly (poor ppe, again, got a friend holidaying there), but hard to see how it's not going to impact us now from that position. Your little house on the hill with its 360 degree wind exposure is going to rock and roll.

How's the wind over there? Been blowing strong here the last two days - gusting to approx 50k - last night it lulled a bit, but its powering on tonight. Really am exposed here to that north easterly - went up to Tim's place, about 500 m away and it was calm. Anyway, 'secured the loose objects' or rather, 'fetched and then secured' them.
Do you think that is typhoon wind - i mean generated cyclonic wind? Or wind rushing into join the party? I can remember seeing big typhoons within a similar vicinity and it was quite calm, the real lull before the storm style.

Anyway, i think you might need to fasten your seatbelts at your house. With its narrow width but two storey height and triangular roof and perched on the hill like that it does actually look a bit like a rocket ready to launch.

I think it's typhoon wind. We were just out tonight watching the low clouds get sucked down the coast, very quickly. Meanwhile, we have winds coming down the 'river' (large creek) valley behind us. It seems to be a pressure thing going on. The winds are now increasingly from the north, and we're getting more clouds and a little rain.

I noticed a distinct change in the winds yesterday (Thursday). This looks like it could be a good storm, but then it is already a 'super' typhoon.

I was at the beach today, the one near you where the windsurfers go, around 3:00, and man there were some massive waves building well off shore. I don't know how to judge wave size, but I would have guessed some of them were pushing six or seven feet, which is big for here, right? The windsurfers seemed to be having problems. I didn't actually see anybody surf, just one guy trying to get out and getting blown back in.

So, yea, I think this is typhoon action we're seeing.

I think it's typhoon wind. We were just out tonight watching the low clouds get sucked down the coast, very quickly. Meanwhile, we have winds coming down the 'river' (large creek) valley behind us. It seems to be a pressure thing going on. The winds are now increasingly from the north, and we're getting more clouds and a little rain.

That's what i was wondering - is it the wind being sucked into the low pressure or cyclonic wind generated out - i think you are right, it's probably the wind rushing in.

Nanmadol - weird name - sounds like an anti-depression drug.

Forgot to mention that we're getting big gusts tonight, and since yesterday things have been getting blown over that normally wouldn't.

We're getting heavy rain and wind now.

Predicted to hit 175 kts tomorrow! That's 325 kph. Do typhoon winds even get any faster than that?

That's amazing. That must be nearly 200 MPH, but I can't tell because the knots to mph conversion chart I use at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/tables/kt2mph.htm tops out at 160 knots.

And the various models have it coming closer to us, even hitting us directly possibly. In fact... by golly, I think one model has it hitting our little hut directly. I wonder if the proverb 'Be careful what you wish for...' will apply here.

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Looks like the eye may have made landfall with ppe - so that's dropped the windspeed, but still strong - only concern is that it will keep heading west now and go under us.
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Anyway, time to start activating our typhoon emergency plans - i got the chickens to worry about, drains to clear out, saplings to stake - you just need to tie yourself to something solid.

Hmm, it has emerged from the ppe with the eye quite a bit further right than the CWB track is showing - looks to be on the 120 degree line (CWB is plotting it at 121.7)- is it heading further west?

What reference are you using to get such an accurate location? Oh, stupid question, CWB. Their sat pic looks like it's slightly further west. Plus the tracks 5, 6, and 7 at http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/cyclone/WP142011_tracks.png are consistently further west than the tracks on the other sites. They do converge eventually, of course, but I'm still wondering where these 'KH' and the 'KX' track on that site are???

If you click on the orange typhoon warning on CWB, and then 'text and graph' you get a map with the lat and long degrees marked in. I was comparing this with the enhanced sat - though it can throw up the odd 'false eye' - does seem to be aligned again now though as soon as it loses its structure, all the rain slops over to the left half so it's kind of deceptive. If the eye stays right of us, we will really cop it. If the eye cuts through TW to the south of us (as JTWC is predicting), then i don't think it will be such a big thing here. CWB, which does seem to be the most accurate at close range, still has it coming right at us - hope the eye clears up and we could be right in it. Also, JTWC has it travelling significantly faster than before.

And the trend has been for this storm to shift west of most of the forecasts. Some of the early 'K' forecasts had it going directly west.

FYI, I updated the FH homepage, adding the Hong Kong Observatory Charts page and the Central Florida Uni page, and taking one link off.

Looks like your old stomping ground is copping it again. That left half where all the rain is feeding into pingdong and there's plent more to come. Although we missed out, there could still be a disaster brewing there. There are places with over 300 ml today and that could climb to 600+ before the day is out.

Yea, they're going to get nailed. It looks like the area that has gotten a lot of rain today is low-lying, north of Fangliao maybe. It could prove problematic for the rail line that runs through there. That's the section that was wiped out with Morakot (one of the sections) making train travel between Taitung and KHH impossible for months.

I don't think it will be that bad this time, but there are sure to be some unhappy, wet people.

This is a bit of a surprise! What do you think is going on here - is it a so called monsoonal depression springing up?

It looks like this rain may hang around for longer than I thought. We went to Taitung yesterday to get some stuff, and now I'm glad we did. It looks like the KaoPing area is going to get hammered.

The sat image linked below was taken a couple of hours ago, and it sure looks like something is forming south of us.

http://202.90.128.200/wb/sat_images/satpic.jpg

Animated over the last few hours it actually looks to be heading east - away from the supposed eye - interesting!

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A couple models have Nanmadol moving southwest after making landfall on China.
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To me, that (what we are getting now) almost looks like it has developed as a separate system with its own rotation going. Certainly it makes the whole thing of focusing on the eye a bit pointless - supposedly the eye is already in China. [image]

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