Will it ever rain again? - Formosahut forum

After a very meagre rainfall total for Sep, Oct is shaping up as even drier. Only 2ml so far and nothing on the horizon. After that, rainfall is seasonally low. Despite huge falls last Nov, that was not normal - the average being only 50-60ml. It gets lower after that until the spring rains come.
It's kind of ridiculous to talk about a 'drought' after a couple of dry months, but Taiwan is so reliant on expected seasonal rainfalls that not much is done to increase storage capacity, so drought can bite very quickly.
In my case, i rely on the rain to fill the tanks so i can water the coffee crop and supply the chickens with drinking water. Still have water now, but would love a top up before the dry season starts.

At least part of the problem with the low rainfall is that the typhoon pattern this year seems to have most of them staying east of us - no straight runners and i don't think ppe has had one landfall typhoon this year - that must almost be a record.

There are currently two typhoons following this pattern.

As such, all the moisture is being sucked away from us. If a typhoon passes under us then we get rain from the poleward outflow but at the moment it's hot and dry and looks set to stay that way for the foreseeable future.

This lack of rain is becoming annoying. I got used to dry winters in Pingtung, but then it would rain every day there until early November, so it didn't bother me. Here we've had very little rainfall now for months, aside from a couple storms over the summer.

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It's doubly annoying for me coz i have a coffee and soap berry tree plantation as well as a vegie patch to water - i seem to spend half my day watering things at the moment.
However, there is some hope on the horizon finally with a low passing south of us in the coming week. Hopefully we will get some 'drift-up' precipitation from that.

This is from the monthly forecast on CWB.
b). Oct27~Nov2 : The mean temperature of this week is most likely to be near normal all over Taiwan. The precipitation of this week has the smallest probability of being above normal in north and east parts of Taiwan. While in central and south parts of Taiwan it tends to be no rainfall.

Not very promising. If we get no further rain this month (10 days left)then we will end up with a grand total of 3ml. Given that the mean for Oct in Taidong is 182 ml, that will mean we have only received 1/60th of the average rainfall. That's a serious shortfall and coming on the back of a dry Sep as well. And then we start the dry season! Nov falls away to 80 ml, then it's 40, 30, 40, 40, 65 from Dec-April.

Those are pretty shocking statistics. I've noticed the 'river' near our house is down to a trickle, and for the first time since we've lived here, no water is making it to the ocean. That water supplies the homes and farms in this area, and I always assumed it was spring fed, but now I'm beginning to wonder.

Let's cross our fingers and hope that this developing storm at the very least brings us some rain rather than sucking it all away from us.

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Doesn't look that exciting, but i'll be putting all my pots and pans out tonight just in case! Been trying to dig up some records for lowest ever oct rainfall but can't find anything - but we must be giving it a shake this year.

Wrote to CWB to ask about the rainfall records and they kindly replied in short time. Turns out that a dry oct is not that unusual. Tonight's rainfall looks like putting us out of contention for a top ten finish, though i am not too disappointed about that. The interesting thing is that 3 of the top 5 driest octobers have occured since 2001.
Monthly Rainfall for Taitung in Oct
Ranking
(from the driest) Station Year Monthly Rainfall(mm)
1 Taitung 2004 2.0
2 Taitung 1982 3.9
2 Taitung 2002 3.9
4 Taitung 1902 5.7
4 Taitung 2001 5.7
6 Taitung 1921 6.7
7 Taitung 1993 8.5
8 Taitung 1930 9.1
9 Taitung 1936 10.4
10 Taitung 1913 13.3
11 Taitung 1944 13.8
12 Taitung 1929 14.0
13 Taitung 1928 14.2
14 Taitung 1963 14.8
15 Taitung 1952 15.7
16 Taitung 1972 19.8
17 Taitung 1992 22.1
18 Taitung 2006 25.7
19 Taitung 1994 26.6
20 Taitung 1925 26.9
21 Taitung 1905 29.5
22 Taitung 1956 30.9
23 Taitung 1989 33.9
24 Taitung 1986 34.3
25 Taitung 1961 39.0
26 Taitung 1997 40.5
27 Taitung 1914 41.0
28 Taitung 1980 41.8
29 Taitung 1923 41.9
30 Taitung 1966 42.6
31 Taitung 1911 46.8
32 Taitung 1910 48.3
33 Taitung 1985 48.7
34 Taitung 1957 50.2
35 Taitung 1977 53.0
36 Taitung 1946 54.6
37 Taitung 1904 54.7
38 Taitung 1943 56.2
39 Taitung 1981 57.3
40 Taitung 1976 59.7
41 Taitung 1995 65.5
42 Taitung 1935 65.6
43 Taitung 1940 66.7
44 Taitung 1990 69.3
45 Taitung 1927 77.7
46 Taitung 1965 81.5
47 Taitung 1979 83.2
48 Taitung 1942 83.4
49 Taitung 1954 86.7
50 Taitung 1907 88.5
51 Taitung 1958 88.7
52 Taitung 1948 89.9
53 Taitung 1959 91.4
54 Taitung 2007 95.3
55 Taitung 2005 100.4
56 Taitung 1955 112.7
57 Taitung 1960 113.1
58 Taitung 1920 119.5
59 Taitung 1933 119.7
60 Taitung 2003 125.0
61 Taitung 1951 126.1
62 Taitung 2008 131.8
63 Taitung 1941 140.5
64 Taitung 1969 142.8
65 Taitung 1934 147.4
66 Taitung 1917 150.2
67 Taitung 1962 152.1
68 Taitung 2009 155.2
69 Taitung 1922 158.6
70 Taitung 1919 169.4
71 Taitung 1938 176.1
72 Taitung 1906 194.1
73 Taitung 1953 198.6
74 Taitung 1983 199.5
75 Taitung 1937 205.9
76 Taitung 1984 210.2
77 Taitung 1931 235.5
78 Taitung 1967 249.2
79 Taitung 1978 262.7
80 Taitung 1908 265.9
81 Taitung 1971 290.2
82 Taitung 1947 292.0
83 Taitung 1909 295.4
84 Taitung 1926 296.3
85 Taitung 1975 311.2
86 Taitung 1912 315.9
87 Taitung 1987 325.3
88 Taitung 1996 333.4
89 Taitung 1939 353.1
90 Taitung 1968 360.1
91 Taitung 1970 387.4
92 Taitung 2011 404.6
93 Taitung 1949 405.7
94 Taitung 1950 406.7
95 Taitung 1932 414.1
96 Taitung 1901 414.3
97 Taitung 1916 421.5
98 Taitung 1915 424.5
99 Taitung 1991 427.0
100 Taitung 1999 432.8
101 Taitung 1924 447.4
102 Taitung 1988 454.4
103 Taitung 1945 470.8
104 Taitung 1918 492.6
105 Taitung 2000 499.8
106 Taitung 2010 503.8
107 Taitung 1964 514.4
108 Taitung 1903 581.1
109 Taitung 1973 764.2
110 Taitung 1974 872.8
111 Taitung 1998 1027.9

I wonder if their records go back only to 1903 or if that's when they started keeping records. They must go back further than that; it would be an odd coincidence if the first year they started keeping records was a record-dry year, unless their rain gauge had a crack in it!

Regardless, that's a nice bit of history. I haven't had a chance to get out and about since yesterday's rain, but I'm sure the garden must have perked up. I'm running a bit of an experiment given my situation of not being able to comfortable water my garden regularly. I spread old seeds from last year regularly, weed the beds sometimes (not much to do there given the recent drought), and see what comes up. I think I've spread various seeds two or three times -- lettuce, spinach (too hot, but what the heck) and something else. This rain and the cooler temperatures should get some to sprout. I'm curious to see what can grow given little or no attention and to see how these seeds act. I remember last year tomato seeds from kitchen wasted sprouted months after being thrown in the garden.

good luck with the experiment! one of the most adapted veg plants i've seen is the eggplant. eventually just got sick of eating eggplant and pulled it out. but would be interesting to know if one strain of lettuce is hardier than others.

I didn't pick up that 1902 was the oldest date. That could well be the beginning of records being kept for Taidong - i think the Bunun were still cutting people's heads off in those days so it would have been a pretty wild place - wouldn't want to be stationed alone on some remote mountain weather station anyways. But yeah, it does seem odd that the first year was one of the driest on record. So if you count 1902 out as a likely error, 3 of the top 4 driest octobers have been since 2001. On the other hand, 2010 and 2011 were among the wettest octobers.

18ml in the guage which is not bad going garden wise, but a long way off filling the tanks.

First coldfront of the season forecast to hit on Oct 30. Might be a bit of rain in that as well.
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we haven't had much rain, but at least we haven't had this - a fire tornado. formed in a big, 30 000 hectare bushfire in australia that is burning out of control.
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That's amazing. I never knew such events took place.

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