new typhoon building

Getting into the tailend of the season now, but looks like we might get some impact from this one over the coming week.
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Most of the models available have it playing out as a straight west shooter, but being the eternal optimist, I think there's a chance it may impact us to some extent. There is certainly a lot of moisture about, so one way or another I hope we at least get some more rain out of it. It appears Tembin may prove to be the height of our 2012 typhoon season, but as I like to say, there's always hope. This is the last season we're in the hut, so I wouldn't mind having one last blast while we're here.

the ones that go south of us seem to have a lot more impact rain wise than the ones that stay east us due to being in the stream of the outflow, and especially at this time of the year with the ne monsoon starting to crank up again which tends to enhance the rain, so we should get some significant falls at the very least. i'd be careful what you wish for so far as getting 'one more blast' goes - you may not have to worry about moving house - if it's any bigger than Tembin than it might move it for you.

What a difference a few hours makes. Jelawat is now predicted to take a a NW track. But it looks like a very uncertain track. This looks like it will be a fun one to follow, From JTWC:

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY INTO A TYPHOON PRIOR TO TAU 72. AFTER THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH PASSES, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND START TO TURN 18W TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. SOME OF THE SPREAD
IS ATTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED, WHILE SOME MODELS APPEAR TO
OVER-ANALYZE THE IMPACT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN THE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS A RESULT. DUE TO THIS LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

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Interesting weather today. My reading is that the rain was actually from the cold front coming down, a kind of mei yu in reverse event, and not from the typhoon. However, the wind died off there for a while then sprang back up again tonight and this may be typhoon generated stuff.

Anyway, it's taken a while to make its move, but seems to be ready now to show us something.
Expected to stay east of us, but a couple of models have it coming right here.
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We are a long way from the typhoon, but there are some serious gusts starting to roar through - this looks like it could be huge. It's predicted to recurve away from us but if it doesn't it could suddenly be on us and catch a few people unprepared. Might make Tembin look like a gentle summer breeze.

I think we're in for some very strong wind over the next 36-48 hours. This indeed may catch people unprepared. It's gusting like crazy already.

We'll be driving to Zhiben tomorrow and back in the late afternoon. Should be interesting and maybe a bit dicey.

Now is the critical time so far as we are concerned for this typhoon. does it start the recurve or keep moving towards us? Animated sat shows it edging towards us in last few hours but need to keep watching to see what it does. It won't take much leftward movement beyond what is forecast to dramatically increase the effect that has on us here.
Whatever, it's a near perfectly formed typhoon - truly an awesome sight.

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According to the tracks, it's not expected to get further west than 123-124 degrees. It's already very close to that now, so any more westward movement and we might really have something to worry about. [image]

Does look to be heading north in last few hours in line with the forecast track. Still expecting big winds but we should be relatively ok.

We're getting very strong gusts, and with Jelawat packing sustained winds of 135 knots, and gusts to 165, I think I can say I'm glad it's not going to hit us directly. If I though we were going to take a direct hit, I'd probably opt to spend the night somewhere more protected.

Still, it looks like we're going to get some very strong winds over the next 12-18 hours. On the drive back from Zhiben, we encountered some very strong winds and the ocean is going nuts.

Yeah, serious gusts charging through up here now - have done a half-baked prep - hope that is enough.

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new typhoon building (Weather)