After two weeks of pot stirring but not much actually happening, a storm has finally formed in the usual area. Beena hot, relatively dry sep so far, so hope we can get a passing drenching out of it at least to soften the soil up for this year's planting yet - speaking of which, have you started yet?
Another question - wanted to compare this track with the start of tembin, which i think was also forecast to head north, but found the image was gone. What needs to be done to preserve the image - store it to computer, then post?

When I post images, I first save them to my computer then upload them into my post using the upload option in the right menu.

Optionally, you can insert an image by using its URL on another site (image option), but then you run the risk of the other site moving the picture in which case it will disappear from your posting.

One feature I literally just found was that if you click on the upload link at right, then click on the Browse uploaded images... option that appears in the popup window, you can post an image that was previously uploaded.

The only thing I've planted so far is about fifteen moringa trees. I'm amazed at how tough they are. They don't seem to germinate terribly easily, but once they get established they do very well. I intentionally did not water them since the last typhoon and have not rebuilt the bed they're in, which got flattened by the storm, and they've done very well. I read that they are supposed to do fine in poor soil and on little water and that seems to be the case. This could prove to be a good crop for the east coast.

Aside from those, we have more yam leaf than we can possibly eat. In order to plant anything, I'll have to destroy some of that, but we have to move soon and that's sapping my motivation to garden.

One thing I've noticed about Sanba is that, firstly, it developed very quickly, and secondly the pressure charts have been changing quite rapidly as well. When I checked the Taiwan CWB 7-day forecast chart yesterday, it had the (pre-Sanba) Sanba low converging with the low to the west of Sanba, and the whole massive bi-low just sitting there for the whole week. Now every model has Sanba moving NNW completely independent of the low to the west. This is a dramatic change in just the last 24 hours. Considering this record of fluctuating forecasts for Sanba, I'd say it's future track is far from certain.

Yeah, they're exciting those ones that really crank up pretty quickly like that - this good be a very big typhoon. It may not come here but seems to be shaping up as the biggest one of the season.
My thought was that it seemed to be quite far away from any obvious steering ridge so it might drift for a while, though it's not forecast to.

btw, what's up with that first sat on the homepage - they seem to be way behind real time?

That T2K image tends to get neglected. I link to the image on their site, so what you see is the latest thing they've posted. I think that's pretty much a one-person operation. I booted into the #3 slot on the homepage.

Not only do I think this will be a big storm, I think that with all the moisture in its proximity, it could produce a lot of rain.

Don't think we can hold out much hope for Sanba looking at that graphic. Usually there's some wild, whacky model that has it diverging away from the rest but on this occasion they are all in total agreement.

I wouldn't be so sure. Some of the models used at http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/ are always way off the consensus of the biggies, but if memory serves, it was one of these crackpot models at that site that first predicted the Tembin loop. Also, note that Sanba hasn't really moved to any significant degree yet, similar to how Tembin acted. I'll accept that Sanba is going on it's widely predicted NNW track after it actually starts heading that way in a noticeable and sustained manner. Until then, well, there's always hope.

I'm not knocking them, i love those crazy guys, but was just surprised that there wasn't any, but that chart you posted really shows one starting to open up. and you're right, the longer it dawdles the greater the chances of the steering landscape signficantly changing.

It looks like those crazy guys have fallen into line after all! I wish I better understood these various models used. Whatever KHRM is, it fluctuates wildly. The 'K' models, as I think of them (there are a couple others that start with K on that site) are much more often than not wrong, but I think their versatility and happy-go-lucky nature allows them to very rarely call it right before the others.

Whatever the case, Sanba is at present a beautiful storm. In addition to a near perfect eye, the bands of Sanba are stretching from Vietnam to the Marianas Islands. Amazing.

Whatever the case, Sanba is at present a beautiful storm. In addition to a near perfect eye, the bands of Sanba are stretching from Vietnam to the Marianas Islands. Amazing.

'A beautiful storm' - i like that. The JTWC guy is raving about it's 'outflow', both poleward and equatorial.

Surf should be up on the east coast at least.

I noticed that the JTWC predicts, "A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48."

I'm assuming that 140 knots is the sustained wind speed. Sanba is going to have some wicked gusts.

They also say that, "IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA FROM EASTERN CHINA."

Low confidence in the track forecast, sweet. Still, it looks like a long shot that we'll get anything other than waves, breezes, and hopefully some rain.

Looking at the pressure chart, it seems that the slower Sanba moves, the greater the likelihood that it could come more our way. It has already slowed from earlier predictions. If it slows to 5 knots or less (it's moving at about 9 now), the ball game could change radically.

Seems to be moving pretty quickly now, and due north, but the incredible thing is the wind. They are saying gusts of 190kts - i have never seen anything that fast! that's 350kph - which is completely insane. Hope they're battening down the hatches on Okinawa.