Yeah, that was a weird call from CWB - in fact they lowered it from 60% to 50% for today, which beggared belief.

Here's a comparison of Tembin and Morakot, both on approach. Would seem to show that Tembin is not in that league. Expecting a short sharp typhoon with very strong winds near the centre, but once the eye passes it should be all but over.

Disclaimer: If it happens to stall over the top of us, then we're stuffed.

Wow, just got the first decent gust. Think it might be 'game on' from here.