Is this the big one?

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Currently there's a TS that looks like getting pretty close to us in the next few days, but behind that is a sizeable low pressure that seems to be forming just in the right spot. Won't be here for over a week, but has plenty of room to grow and could end up being the big one.

It's hard to say if it's going to be a big one at this point, but there's enough activity heading our way that I'm confident we'll be getting showers at least a couple of times a week for what looks like the rest of the summer. But you're right, that low is ripe for development.

I've also noticed that that low just off the coast has been stationary for the last 36 hours or so, giving it time to develop. I thought, given the speed with which Kai-tak went by, that this system would move quickly as well, but it has stalled. It may end up giving us more of a show than we anticipate.

Can't work out what that low's doing. CWB has it as a TD, but nobody else seems to be registering it so far. Has dropped a fair way south in the last 24 hrs, though last forecast i saw had it going north and staying east of us. Anyway, great lightning show last night.

The forecasts make no sense, or at least don't reflect what we see in the satellite images. However, this thing looks like it has stalled big time, and it's anybody's guess where it's going to go once it starts moving. I still think we're going to get a lot of rain out of it regardless of it's eventual path.

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Yeah, seems to have the yo-yo effect. They are still forecasting it to track almost due north from its current position, along the ridge of the high.
Meanwhile, i'm liking that low behind it even more than i did yesterday. Of course, it's way too early to say, but it seems to be heading in our general direction. The above map is for 6 days time. If that high holds its form, then it should steer it right into Taiwan.

There's a helluva lot of ocean between us and it, but it is heading vaguely in our direction and they are saying the High (steering ridge) is looking pretty stable which means they have a 'high degree of confidence' in the track. Seems a bit far north at this point to hit southern Taiwan, but we'll see what happens.

This typhoon has the potential to develop into something massive as conditions for development are optimal at this time of year. Anyway, looks like we're in for a bit of action over the next couple of weeks.

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This is where my understanding of the JTWC prognosis breaks down! "UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC..."

Self-induced meso-anticyclone? Is that anything like a bad hangover?

This one does look like it has the potential to do some damage, and the one behind it is on track to hit us as well.

This is where my understanding of the JTWC prognosis breaks down! "UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC..."

Self-induced meso-anticyclone? Is that anything like a bad hangover?

Yeah, i've experienced that self-induced mess after a night out before - but can't remember whether the room was spinning in an anti-cyclonic direction or not.

There's quite a discrepancy here in forecasts. CWB still has the second typhoon heading back down to the south of us while JTWC has it recurving to the north of Taiwan.
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It's interesting how the area of error lessons as it passes over Taiwan. It's as if to say, "It could go north or south a bit before hitting Taiwan, but it's going to zero in on you eventually." We'll see.

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It's interesting how the area of error lessons as it passes over Taiwan. It's as if to say, "It could go north or south a bit before hitting Taiwan, but it's going to zero in on you eventually." We'll see.

According to JTWC prognosis section, they're claiming a 'high degree of confidence' for the track on the grounds that the high is relatively stable, which appears to contradict the graph. I think, but i'm not sure, the error zone is actually a reflection of the season's previous track errors. As such, i'd say we're a very decent chance of getting whacked. Also seems to be edging closer to us with every update. Might be time to start taking this seriously and spend a day preparing.

I think you're right. This was supposed to be a big work week for me. Looks like I might be doing most of it from home after tomorrow. Still, I'm going to stick to my plan, weather permitting, of taking the bike to Taitung tomorrow for a variety of tasks. I'm looking forward to it.

I think that's when you know it's a bad one - when it's going in both directions at once.

Yeah, it's a weird one.

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Ok, i see what you mean about the same typhoon going in two different directions at the same time. Both are these from CWB, on the same website, showing the same typhoon (Bolaven) going in completely different directions. On ther forecast graphic they have it going south of TW, but on their track graphic, they have it going north of TW. I am assuming the JTWC track is closer to reality - it has Bolaven bending north of Taiwan.

Actually, I think my 'two different directions' comment was in regards to the hangover analogy to "SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE" But these two typhoons have been all over the place in predictions, and Tembin has been all over the place literally. It's shaping up to be quite a dicey situation. We could easily get stranded here with no electricity and little water, although we have a city water line which is comforting, as long as the water tank doesn't get blown over.

For the first time, we'll be packing typhoon evacuation bags.

Bought some new wood boards for the windows today, cleaned the drains, and staked some plants, but by evening the sat suggested it was headed well north of us.
In the last couple of hours though, it does seem to have turned sharply left.

Your preparations may not have been in vain after all. As it looks this morning, it's coming right at us. The JTWC has it going farther north than other services, but even they have it hitting the central coast.

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Bit of digression in the ranks this morning. BTW, what's up with the JTWC site? Your mirror thing doesn't seem to be working? And why does JTWC make it so difficult to access their site?

I still think you'll be glad you made all those preparations!

The JTWC site has been going down about every half hour, though it seems to be doing better today. I had my sync set up to run every 20 minutes. If it runs when their site is actually down, it ends up empty. I originally set it up because the JTWC site would often be inaccessible from Taiwan for some reason, but still be up in the US, in which case the sync is useful; it is populated. My servers are in the US, so they can access the JTWC sometimes when we can't here. Does that make sense? But the last couple of days the JTWC site has been going down completely, even in the US, which is why the sync hasn't worked.

I mean, we can send a man to the moon, but...

Anyway, good job Dan - your site is probably the only place in Taiwan that can get it.

Had the chooks all locked down and put up the tarp across their 'windows', which is my Warning Signal No.3, but decided to let them out for one last forage. Should be taking advantage of this unexpected delay and be out staking more trees - just waiting for the back to loosen up from yesterday's big effort.

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Is this the big one? (General)