Man, you know how to attract a storm! April is a weird time for a typhoon.

The big news in mid-east Aus is the El Nino, which has turned one of the wettest places on the planet in April into a dry zone. How does El Nino effect Guam, if at all?

This is the most ominous forecast I've read on JTWC, not that I follow it that closely, but still. Look at some of the language and facts. I'm lazy so I'll paste the main bit with highlights.

IT CAN BE SAID THAT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT OF A SIGNIFICANT SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 96 HOURS.
- And that's at four days out and this thing still just a kiddie. The certainty is unusual. Someone is putting their balls on the line!

NEARLY ALL RI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER AND MULTIPLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEEDING 80-90 PERCENT, AN
UNPRECEDENTED VALUE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
- Again, the certainty is astonishing. And note the use of UNPRECEDENTED. If they mean literally, the agreement is higher than ever before.

TLDR: We're fucked.

EDIT: Source https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0926prog.txt

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FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (BAVI) CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF AN EXTENSION
OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THIS AREA OF RIDGING WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE STEADILY
WEAKENING, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY THE PRIMARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL BUILD EASTWARD, TAKING OVER THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THESE DYNAMIC STEERING PATTERN CHANGES
WILL LEAD TS 09W TO ASSUME A NEARLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPID MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN, MOVING QUICKLY INTO FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC, INDUCING
A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TS 09W. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW TS BAVI NORTHWARD, IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING GRADIENT, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP
SLOW-DOWN IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF TS BAVI AFTER TAU 36. BEYOND TAU
72, THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP MARGINALLY, AS A STR OVER THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS BEGINS TO EXTEND EASTWARD AND ASSUMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
ROLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
AROUND TAU 96. THE CPA TO GUAM HAS DECREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 30NM
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE AIDS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE 10-15 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERN SHEAR,
INHIBITING RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DELAYING THE ONSET OF RI.
HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STEADY REDUCTION IN
SHEAR COMMENCING IMMINENTLY, AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS
DEPICT THE SYSTEM ACHIEVING AXISYMMETRIZATION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.
ONCE THIS OCCURS, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE RI, REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 140 KNOTS WITHIN 72 HOURS. HAFS-A CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A PEAK INTENSITY EXCEEDING 150 KNOTS. AS EARLY AS TAU 72,
BUT THEN EXPLICITLY FORECASTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (EWRC)
STARTING AROUND TAU 84 AND CONTINUING THROUGH PASSAGE TROUGH THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WROUGHT
BY THE EWRC IS YET TO BE DETERMINED WITH ANY FIDELITY, HOWEVER IT
CAN BE SAID THAT THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN IMPACT OF
A SIGNIFICANT SUPER TYPHOON WITHIN 96 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS TIGHTENED UP SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 HAS DECREASED TO 100NM, WHILE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 HAS DECREASED TO 160NM AND THE WHOLE
PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BY ROUGHLY 30NM. THE EXPERIMENTAL GDM
FGNI TRACKER AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.
THE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MODELS ARE ALL SITUATED IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ENVELOPE, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TRADITIONAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, ARE LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS LARGE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
PERSISTS ON THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM, PEAKING AT JUST 95 KNOTS,
WHILE THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HAFS-A ARE AT THE HIGH END,
BETWEEN 145-155 KNOTS. NEARLY ALL RI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
AND MULTIPLE RI PROBABILITIES ARE EXCEEDING 80-90 PERCENT, AN
UNPRECEDENTED VALUE, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.